Fishing with Rod Discussion Forum

Fishing in British Columbia => General Discussion => Topic started by: RalphH on January 11, 2023, 10:13:28 PM

Title: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on January 11, 2023, 10:13:28 PM
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/snow-pack-bc-below-normal


"For B.C.’s South Coast the snow pack is 70 per cent of normal — down 36 per cent from last year — while on Vancouver Island, it’s at 62 per cent of normal, and Upper Fraser West is the lowest in the province at 50 per cent of normal."
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: wildmanyeah on January 12, 2023, 12:20:27 PM
about on time for the doom and gloom EARLY snowpack reports
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: cutthroat22 on January 12, 2023, 12:20:58 PM
Quite a bit early to speculate on these things.  Flipping a coin at this time would give you similar odds to predicting snow pack months from now.

Worse case scenario we cover the snow in mylar for the spring/summer season.

We are pretty blessed having the reservoirs above the Lower Mainland. 
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: Bavarian Raven on January 12, 2023, 12:30:26 PM
Glad i am not the only one that noticed this  :P While its still early, if things don't change, we might be in for another hot and very dry summer. :(
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on January 12, 2023, 12:49:45 PM
True about it being early but the first half of the season is the most important part. Drought also depends on the kind of spring and summer we get. If we get a wet late spring or moist cool summer we'd be ok.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: Roderick on January 16, 2023, 12:17:42 PM
Well, Grouse mountain just got 25cm of new snow, with lots more in the forecast. 
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: roeman on January 16, 2023, 04:26:40 PM
Can be 120% of normal within a week.  Getting excited way too early.  Warm and dry down here till the end of October last year so it will be cold and wet till the end of May in 2023. 
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on January 16, 2023, 05:07:32 PM
Comparing Grouse snowfall plus snow making added the base on the plateau is about 200cm. About 2/3 of the snow fall has melted or compacted. The last 7 days has seen 41cm of new snow
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: SuperBobby on January 16, 2023, 06:19:44 PM
I don't predict the snowpack until the time change in March. By then we can get a pretty good idea where we are at.
On Jan 11th.....predicting the final snow pack is like throwing darts in the dark.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on January 16, 2023, 08:58:55 PM
You predict the snowpack? ROTFLMAO!
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: SuperBobby on January 17, 2023, 04:51:47 PM
You predict the snowpack? ROTFLMAO!

What are you laughing about? Predicting the final snow pack early March is usually pretty easy.
You're the one posting doom and gloom with over 2 months of winter left.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on January 17, 2023, 06:59:56 PM
Predicting anything when it's over is dead easy. That's what's so funny!

I didn't predict anything. I just provided a link to the report. The report does 't predict anything either. It's just about the current numbers and how they stack up relative to 'average'.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: SuperBobby on January 18, 2023, 08:44:15 AM
Predicting anything when it's over is dead easy. That's what's so funny!

Anything can happen after March 12th. There have been several years when over half the snowpack accumulates from early March until mid April.

I didn't predict anything. I just provided a link to the report. The report does 't predict anything either. It's just about the current numbers and how they stack up relative to 'average'.

You posted a Jan12th article that was warning of the possibility of drought for this upcoming summer. All I'm saying is the all the mainstream news will always go out of their way to put if fear into the masses for no reason.
Like I said....the time change in March is a much more responsible time to start giving warnings (if necessary) the upcoming water situation....Not Jan 12th
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on January 18, 2023, 12:28:44 PM
Anything can happen after March 12th. There have been several years when over half the snowpack accumulates from early March until mid April.

please name at least 7 years where the majority of the snowpack happened after March 12th.

Btw it's not the thickness of the pack that matters, it's the water it holds. As the snow in the first half or so of the season gets compacted it holds more water than it's depth may indicate

Quote
You posted a Jan12th article that was warning of the possibility of drought for this upcoming summer.

Warning of a possibility is not a prediction Superbobbyrobbie.  I actually put this up because I thought others may be interested particularly since we did experience quite the rise in the freezing level after Jan 1st which is the data set the the JAn 12th report was based on.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: wildmanyeah on January 24, 2025, 01:32:59 PM
Is it that time of year yet  :D
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on January 25, 2025, 08:08:16 AM
LOL, Just can't get enough eh WMY?

Here you go:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_jan1.pdf

Quote
As of January 1st, the provincial snowpack is slightly below normal,
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: dennisK on February 04, 2025, 07:35:39 AM
LOL, Just can't get enough eh WMY?

Here you go:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_jan1.pdf

i think we got some snowpack!

https://www.theprogress.com/local-news/photos-snowstorm-hits-chilliwack-7297815


(https://www.bpmcdn.com/f/files/shared/feeds/gps/2024/01/web1_240117-cpl-snow-storm-photos_4.jpg)
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on February 04, 2025, 08:52:24 AM
I think the next report will be issued in a week or 2. January was a relatively dry month.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: SuperBobby on February 04, 2025, 09:11:06 AM
The sky is falling. The sky is falling.
Don't worry. JT will still increase the carbon tax again this spring. Every time he increases it, the weather and climate should improve a little more.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: fisherforever on February 04, 2025, 09:47:13 AM
Just measured 13" on my car here in Wilson Creek and I'm only 1/4 mile from the ocean.
Title: Re: Snow pack currently as low as 50% of normal - summer drought looms!
Post by: RalphH on February 04, 2025, 10:06:33 AM
The sky is falling. The sky is falling.
Don't worry. JT will still increase the carbon tax again this spring. Every time he increases it, the weather and climate should improve a little more.

It's not the sky it's just snow. I'd of thought you heard JT will be out as PM by March 10th. You will feel heart sick & lost for a week or so but back to normal soon after.

Quote
measured 13" on my car here in Wilson Creek

two inches here. Most of the snow has fallen on the East Coast of the Island south of Nanaimo
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on February 04, 2025, 02:48:24 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLlv_aZjHXc&ab_channel=TheFullMontyPython
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on February 11, 2025, 10:21:52 PM
Lower than  average. higher than last year:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_feb1.pdf
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: clarki on February 12, 2025, 12:06:43 AM
It’s a curious combination (that I don’t understand, yet) of topography and weather patterns that causes the little Skagit basin to have significantly lower snowfall than the two basins (Similkameen and Lower Fraser) that surround it.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: roeman on February 12, 2025, 08:29:59 AM
There is no need to panic...
Trump has water he will sell...
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on February 12, 2025, 08:31:41 AM
It’s a curious combination (that I don’t understand, yet) of topography and weather patterns that causes the little Skagit basin to have significantly lower snowfall than the two basins (Similkameen and Lower Fraser) that surround it.

our region is well known for its micro-climates.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on March 12, 2025, 03:15:40 PM
Latest report as of March 1st is available.

 https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_mar1.pdf

Brief Provincial summary is at 73% of average so generally around 70%. The Skagit watershed is at 27% which is not good. Higher than last year which was 66%.

Low probability of serious flooding during the coming spring freshet.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: SuperBobby on March 12, 2025, 03:22:57 PM
Latest report as of March 1st is available.

 https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/air-land-water/water/river-forecast/2025_mar1.pdf

Brief Provincial summary is at 73% of average so generally around 70%. The Skagit watershed is at 27% which is not good. Higher than last year which was 66%.

Low probability of serious flooding during the coming spring freshet.

March 1st reports are already irrelevant. I'm hearing that in the last week or so that some of the coastal ranges have added 5-8 feet of snow above 4000 feet.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on March 12, 2025, 07:46:14 PM
March 1st reports are already irrelevant. I'm hearing that in the last week or so that some of the coastal ranges have added 5-8 feet of snow above 4000 feet.

Speaking of irrelevant

you realize that the % of average are relative to the time of year and not the total?

As I have mentioned a number of times the most important part of the snowpack is that portion established in the first half of the season.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: SuperBobby on March 12, 2025, 08:12:14 PM
Speaking of irrelevant

you realize that the % of average are relative to the time of year and not the total?

As I have mentioned a number of times the most important part of the snowpack is that portion established in the first half of the season.

Snow water equivalent works the same in Dec as it does in April. The only thing that they care about is how much snow water is at the measurement site.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on March 12, 2025, 09:35:46 PM
Again the comparison basis for historical average is different for December than March or April
some consideration of snowfall vs snowpack:

Whistler Snow report:

https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx

https://mtseymour.ca/the-mountain/todays-conditions-hours

The actual snowpack levels on an adjusted seasonal basis have declined since January from 87% of normal to 73% as of March 1st. Late snowpack is the first to melt off and if it makes up a larger than normal % of the pack it means there could be an early loss of the pack causing drought conditions in summer.

Quote
"Low snowpack and seasonal runoff forecasts combined with warm seasonal weather forecasts and lingering impacts from ongoing drought are pointing toward elevated drought hazards for this upcoming spring and summer,"

If you look at Fig 3 on pg 6 of the report the SWEs are actually worse than the snowpack data suggests. Most measurement stations actually saw decreased snowpacks vs Feb 1st (pg 5). The Provincial figure is influenced by high snowpacks in Northern BC.



Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: SuperBobby on March 13, 2025, 08:58:07 AM
Again the comparison basis for historical average in different for December than March or April
some consideration of snowfall vs snowpack:

Whistler Snow report:

https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx

https://mtseymour.ca/the-mountain/todays-conditions-hours

The actual snowpack levels on an adjusted seasonal basis have declined since January from 87% of normal to 73% as of March 1st. Late snowpack is the first to melt off and if it makes up a larger than normal % of the pack it means there could be an early loss of the pack causing drought conditions in summer.

If you look at Fig 3 on pg 6 of the report the SWEs are actually worse than the snowpack data suggests. Most measurement stations actually saw decreased snowpacks vs Feb 1st (pg 5). The Provincial figure is influenced by high snowpacks in Northern BC.

I understand that 'snowfall' and 'snowpack' are not the same thing.
What you are failing to realize by your link is that Whistler has received 5 feet of snowfall in the last 7 days. Forecast is for another 5 feet or more of snow in the next 7 days.
10 feet of 'snowfall' is a lot of snow no matter how you shake it. Yes, I get it that we aren't talking about 10 feet of snowpack, but 10 feet of fresh 'snowfall' produces a lot of snow water.

The bottomline is at the rate we are going, the end of the month reports will probably be a lot more positive for the coastal mountains then the March 1st report.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on March 14, 2025, 08:30:15 AM
I don't know where you get your figures but this mornings' Whistler Blackcomb forecast through next Thursday is about 16cm ofd total snowfall which is well below 10 feet. Fact is it is about half a foot.  (https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx  @ approx 8:30 am date of this post. Note like all forecasts this may change within the hour)

You often say things that are just not credible but are in-credible in the true sense of the word.

Something else you are doing is predict the future and not look at the results. You also do it based on 2nd hand info or one or 2 data points. The  snowpack reporting system uses over 90.

How 'bad' is the current situation. Depends on the watershed. Some areas like the Chilcotin (16%) are currently very low. Others are Ok. I'd say about 70% of average isn't that bad. Places like the Island and the Sechelt area can likely manage so that's ok compared to 2 years ago when the Sechelt reservoirs were all but dry.

 I don't know how reliable all the regional reports are. For example Boundary had some dry years but this year and last it looks good. However there is only one data collection site in Boundary. From my knowledge of the Region I'd think that actual broad snow cover is more important vs the snowpack on the few relatively high peaks.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: SuperBobby on March 14, 2025, 09:39:22 AM
I don't know where you get your figures but this mornings' Whistler Blackcomb forecast through next Thursday is about 16cm ofd total snowfall which is well below 10 feet. Fact is it is about half a foot.  (https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx  @ approx 8:30 am date of this post. Note like all forecasts this may change within the hour)

You often say things that are just not credible but are in-credible in the true sense of the word.

Something else you are doing is predict the future and not look at the results. You also do it based on 2nd hand info or one or 2 data points. The  snowpack reporting system uses over 90.

How 'bad' is the current situation. Depends on the watershed. Some areas like the Chilcotin (16%) are currently very low. Others are Ok. I'd say about 70% of average isn't that bad. Places like the Island and the Sechelt area can likely manage so that's ok compared to 2 years ago when the Sechelt reservoirs were all but dry.


 I don't know how reliable all the regional reports are. For example Boundary had some dry years but this year and last it looks good. However there is only one data collection site in Boundary. From my knowledge of the Region I'd think that actual broad snow cover is more important vs the snowpack on the few relatively high peaks.


If you read my posts, you would see that I was talking about the 'coastal ranges'. Anyways....it's not worth arguing with you. I stand by what I said that come March 31, I think the 'coastal range' snowpack will be in better shape then it was on March 1st.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on March 14, 2025, 09:52:19 AM

If you read my posts, you would see that I was talking about the 'coastal ranges'. Anyways....it's not worth arguing with you. I stand by what I said that come March 31, I think the 'coastal range' snowpack will be in better shape then it was on March 1st.

You seem to think everything I write has to do with you. Why is that?
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: SuperBobby on March 14, 2025, 10:02:28 AM
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/seasonal/canada-2025-spring-weather-forecast

Our Spring forecast is for a cooler than normal spring until at least May with normal precipitation. This is a very common pattern with a La Nina leaving us.
This sort of weather pattern generally means a DELAYED snow melt for the higher elevations on BC mountains....and quite often brings above normal spring snowfall for mid to high elevations.

At this point, there is no reason to panic as some love to fearmonger their man made climate change delusions.
Unless May and June go super early summer hot, no one needs to lose any sleep over 'what could happen'. That is still many weeks away.

Or maybe your buddy Mark Carney could use our carbon tax dollars to truck in snow from the Arctic to build our snowpack even more.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on March 14, 2025, 11:09:45 AM
Oh now comes the climate change Liberal/Progressive conspiracy tirade.

On the subject of a cool spring, the last 2 at least have been cool and wet. I garden so I have noticed it. Summers have been dry and hot though. We will see what the southern ocean currents bring.

Have a nice day. Cheers!
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: roeman on March 14, 2025, 12:31:33 PM
Snowpack, climate change, housing and food pricing.  Does not matter anymore..
Trump will be here soon and will fix everything.
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: RalphH on March 14, 2025, 04:05:56 PM
Hitler calls out Trump (parody)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNltws-wXdM&ab_channel=HitlerRantsParodies (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNltws-wXdM&ab_channel=HitlerRantsParodies)
Title: Re: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)
Post by: SuperBobby on March 24, 2025, 01:53:27 PM
Looks like the mid March snow report had some pretty good increases. they are forecasting a warm spell for the next few days so it should be interesting to see how it holds up until the end of the month.
They are still predicting a slow melt through until at least the end of April. Our winter total will still fall short of normal which is becoming more and more common lately.

Regardless, the sky is not falling, but the climate mongers have been well and alive since they predicted the next ice age back in the 70s. There is no better tool to control the lemmings than fear. Crazy how 100s of millions of people still haven't figured that out yet.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin/snow-conditions-commentary