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[arimaBOATER]

Mr Pink Salmon.... Your wanted alive then dead..... The salmon shark want to eat you... seals want to eat you....sports & native & commercial fishers want to eat or sell you....eagles want you..... sea lice want you..... Must be tough to be a pink salmon. Agreed they are a good eating fish...easier to catch.... BUT yes you(s) are right on...in recent yrs numbers for all salmon Fraser R bound are decreasing FAST.... Hopefully their numbers will be good this year..... If the numbers are high that would be a big surprize.

[bcsixgill]

I heard Cates Park isn't too bad when they are running.  I'll be checking it out with my 10 year old this August.

[Steely]

I am exited as I am 5 min bike from the Lower Fraser. Did well last time and hoping for about the same. I hope to have some early reports for you guys as I will start going down early this year. I love this fishery as living in delta there not a whole lot else to fish for in salmon and trout species.

[Sir Snag-A-Lot]

Is the run size predicted to be particularly large this year?

[lude98r]

Yes, supposed to be large

[HOOK]

what do you consider large though ?? I remember there used to be so many you could damn near walk across them in the smaller rivers. Its sad because the sockeye used to be like that back in the day as well.


anyone know the projected run size ??   10-20 million ? more.....less  wasnt it only 10yrs ago they predicted like 70million !!

[Rodney]

wasnt it only 10yrs ago they predicted like 70million !!

No.

The average estimated return of Fraser River pink salmon since the 1960s is 12 million fish.

This year's estimated return is 14 million fish at 50% probability level.

[Sinaran]

the estimation is more like a pre-season hype thingy... 
i remembered the last pink year the prediction was like 20millions, the pinks started to show up by mid august and peaked by end of that month, and all in a sudden the number just went down sharply.  Then there came the new estimation at 8millions run size..   

[Rodney]

Pre-season estimation is not a concrete number and is constantly revised as the season approaches. The estimation is not a fixed number, but instead many numbers are given at different probability level. Usually, the higher the probability, the lower the number is. The estimation is usually given to the public at 50% probability, but often people will end up finding other numbers (at 90%, 75%, 10%, etc) from different sources. This is usually how rumours are started among anglers. The pre-season estimation is usually not close to the actually stock return. This does not mean mismanagement, but simply because biologists still have many unknowns in the Pacific Ocean where pink salmon are during their adult phase.

Pre-season estimation for pink salmon is determined from fry outmigration estimate.

The average fry outmigration number since the 1960s is 370 million fish, which has yielded an average of 12 million adult returns.

The fry outmigration estimate for the 2007 run was 615 million fish, almost double of the long term average, therefore the pre-season estimate of that year's run was 20.3 million fish. Despite of the downgraded return number when the season was over, it still yielded 500 million outmigrating fry for 2009's stock. If all goes well in the Pacific Ocean, we will see a good pink salmon fishing season.

Pink salmon season typically starts in a few weeks from now on Vancouver Island. Late July and August are when we begin seeing fish in Howe Sound, the Squamish River system (look for possible fishing or retention closures/openings), Capilano River mouth, Seymour River, Deep Cove and Cates Park. The Fraser River pink salmon run usually starts in early to mid August, but the number of fish in the early part of the season is low, so they are too spread out to be targeted in the Tidal Fraser River. They could however be caught in the non-tidal portion, upstream from Mission. The peak of the Fraser River pink salmon run usually happens in the first two weeks of September, but they could be caught by the third week of August too.

[Dr. Backlash]

i read on Fred's "Fishing Reports" that there could be as many as 10 million sockeye this year, and that there could be an opening for the entire month of August.  Is there any truth to this? or is it pure speculation?

[BOWHUNTER]

it would be sweet to have pinks and sockeye near the same time with an opening!!!

I remember in 2001 on the vedder the pinks were in so thick it was every cast for hours,

[Rodney]

and that there could be an opening for the entire month of August.  Is there any truth to this? or is it pure speculation?

Unlike chinook, sockeye and coho salmon, retention of pink salmon and chum salmon is opened year-round on the Fraser River.

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/rec/fresh-douce/region2-eng.htm

The preseason forecast of this year's pink salmon run is 14 million fish.

[Davis]

Wishful thinking, regarding the predicted Sockeye run numbers,recent yrs have the numbers decreased significantly,word has it, as this is a cycle yr for the socks,it may turn out to be the last opening ever on the Fraser for socks.So sharpen up your hooks,tie up your long leaders,get the wool ready and get out there if the numbers are suffient to warrant a last opening on a once world class fishery.