You may want to check out this thread:
http://www.fishingwithrod.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=29374.new#new
The study discussed, both the proposed tagging study and the earlier study that was presented at the inquiry, suggest that something is indeed going on as the smolts leave the Fraser, but more importantly shortly after they leave the Johnstone Straits where a large concentration of salmon farms are located. The proposed study is an attempt to expand our knowledge of the impacts of the farms on the survival of wild Fraser Sockeye.
Also, the point AF made earlier was that the "Sustainability" designation of the MSC does not reflect the current abundance of the stock, nor does it suggest that commercial harvesting should be allowed at any given moment (the present included). The sustainability of the wild sockeye lies in the proper management of the stocks (including harvest levels) and their ability to sustain themselves. There current state of the stocks is not a reflection of the "unsustainability" of the fishery, but on the poor management of the negative impacts (including harvest rates) thus far. The lack of sustainability of the open net pen salmon farms lies in negative effects they have on both the environment (through pollution of the surroundings by their unfiltered outputs, and through their pressure on feed fish stocks) and on the wild stocks (through the potential transmission of parasites and disease to migrating fish). These negative impacts (which you are welcome to refute and minimize despite the documented scientific evidence to the contrary) are inherent in the practice of open net pen farming, whereas the negatives in the commercial fishery are external to the fishery itself, that is to say, if the habitat loss, climate change impacts, pollution, etc. were controlled to allow the sockeye to spawn and rear successfully, then the harvest levels could be set to appropriate levels to sustain the stocks while providing for a viable fishery. The fact that we are not there at the moment, does not detract from the fact the wild sockeye fishery can be sustainable. Open net pens, on the other hand, while they may have made attempt s to minimize the negative effects they have on the environment, are still having a negative impact and could even be potentially damaging to wild stocks. This is what make them "unsustainable" as they are now.
I already commented on that particular study briefly in this forum (different thread) already so I did see it. Actually, I am aware of a few more studies about this you that are probably not aware of as it is part of my job. The fact remains that there is much more to know about Fraser Sockeye and hopefully studies such as this will shed more light on the matter. The thing is that proper management does not exist in its current form with the type of conventional fisheries that we have currently. The MSC certification makes quite a few assumptions, but in reality many Fraser Sockeye CUs (Conservation Units) are far from being sustainable – even if we adjust harvest levels. There is more to it than that. For one thing, we need to get back to more science based information on what the total run size is instead of having it hashed out by managers with stakeholders pressing them for more and more opportunity.
Secondly, you need to understand the entry of the various timing groups of Fraser River Sockeye into the Fraser, their overlap and the various weaker stocks that migrate amongst the stronger stocks. Commercial fisheries indiscriminately target weaker stocks. Managers try to avoid this by the types of fisheries conducted, types of gear, location and closures, but the bycatch of weaker stocks unfortunately still happens. For instance, Cultus is a late run Sockeye, but their migration through the Fraser is very protracted beginning in late July and goes on into November. They basically co-migrate with Early Summers, Summers and other Late Run Sockeye. These can consist of much stronger stocks such as Chilko which can be targeted by fisheries. The various run timing groups and their overlap over each other compounds of impact of these commercial fisheries even more.
What we need to do is encourage fisheries that are much more reduced, more valued added, more selective and more terminal (if at all possible). The PICFI fisheries conducted over the past couple of years in the BC Interior where fisheries are conducted near the terminal areas greatly reduce unnecessary bycatch. This is an example of sustainable fisheries. This is what should get the MSC certification. The other commercial fisheries are clearly not.
Like most critics you seem to talk about the negative impacts of fish farming, but ignore the wealth of evidence provided at the Cohen Inquiry that indicated that the industry in BC was responsible, sustainable and can co-exist with wild salmon. Expert testimony (such as from Dr. Micheal Kent) during the inquiry never suggested that fish farms could not be a source of disease and parasite transmission; however, it was emphasized that this needs to be equally weighed with how the industry in BC manages for this and how other places in the world are light years behind the regulatory environment that this industry in BC is under. You talk about negative impacts on wild salmon from the “potential of transmission of parasites and disease to migrating fish transmission”, but you need to remember the glaring fact that major gaps exist in our knowledge about the impact of these diseases on the survival of wild salmon. Even Dr. Kristi Miller alluded to this during her original testimony in August and her latest testimony in December of last year. Yes, even the Scientist of the Year does not necessarily take the view of many fish farm opponents. Instead they selectively take what they want from hear from her and ignore whatever else she is saying. We need to stop relying on studies based on mathematical models and correlations and actually start looking at the fish themselves. We need to support objective science projects like what Dr. Welch proposes and remove ourselves from the conjecture that has dominated the stage for the past 10 years. Sandman, I don’t need to spend my evening refuting your claims or perceptions of the industry – the technical reports, the testimony and exhibits from the inquiry already do that. Read the link to the technical reports I provided in my previous post. The issues are more complex than just aquaculture.
You would be hard pressed to find many industries in and around water that do not have negative impacts. Those marines on the BC coast have negative impact. Mixed stock commercial fisheries clearly have a negative impact. The negative impacts of fish farms are made worse with poor regulations and poor operating practices. There may be other places in the world that are conducting some poor aquaculture practices, but I do not see anything in the testimony from the inquiry that leads me to believe that the industry in BC is poorly operated (especially in the last decade).
Lastly, you take a big leap by suggesting that the negatives of the commercial fishery are external to the fishery itself. Clearly, the commercial fishery has some big negatives which are internal – relating to very nature of the indiscriminate, mixed stock fishery itself and where it is generally located. It is a big assumption to make that if habitat loss, climate change impacts and pollution were controlled to allow Sockeye to spawn and rear successfully then we can adjust harvest levels to sustain stocks. It sounds good in theory, but totally unrealistic for the most part. More on the spawning grounds is better than fewer, but is not all about abundance. Changing harvest levels do not necessarily ensure the abundance of Fraser Sockeye. What helps is if you help maintain the integrity and diversity of the individual CU so that if a certain population go extinct for some reason or another then a nearby population can help rebuild it by straying. When you target populations indiscriminately this can have an adverse influence on the ability of the CU to function in this regard. You have also left out much of Scott Hinch’s work over the past 12 years (much of it presented during the Cohen Inquiry) which indicate that environmental conditions will likely impact Fraser Sockeye more into the future. How do we control for climate change? Dr. Miller’s own research has other areas to cover which may definitely change how we view prespawn mortality. You have also left out much of what the Cohen Inquiry had on what government cutbacks are doing to current habitat monitoring by DFO. Compare the development along the shorelines of our large nursery lakes in the BC Interior from the 70s and 80s to what is there now. There is clearly not much control. There are multiple jurisdictions involved and tons of referrals overwhelming an already overworked habitat division. That is the major flaw in your argument - many of these things you mention are not constant or controlled. That is one of the things that makes managing Fraser Sockeye so difficult - the variability that cannot be easily controlled. Sockeye fisheries are adjusted inseason when environmental conditions are poor in the Fraser, but these conditions are likely going to curtail additional fisheries – not increase them.