This year's poor return is widespread and not restricted to one watershed:
FN1242-COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Areas 14 to 19 - Mid Vancouver Island Chum Update - November 8, 2018
Mid Vancouver Island Chum Update (Areas 14 to 19)
Area 14
Escapement estimates to date are as follows:
Puntledge River, November 7 - 33,000 Chum - Target Escapement 60,000
Big Qualicum River, November 7 - 10,000 Chum - Target Escapement 85,000
Little Qualicum River, October 31 - 5,200 Chum - Target Escapement 85,000
Based on returns to date, it is unlikely that commercial fishing opportunities
will occur in 2018. Based on current escapement and run timing, total returns
are expected to be below escapement targets in Area 14.
Areas 15 and 16
An overflight of Jervis Inlet systems was conducted October 31 and another
flight is being conducted today, November 7. Observations to date are of
generally low returns to Areas 15 and 16.
Commercial fishing opportunities are not expected in 2018 due to low pre-season
forecast levels of abundance.
Areas 17, 18, and 19
Escapement estimates to date are as follows:
Nanaimo River, November 6 - 76,000 - Target Escapement 40,000.
Cowichan River, November 7 - 155,000 - Target Escapement 160,000.
Goldstream River, November 7 - 21,000 - Target Escapement 15,000.
The next Mid Vancouver Island Chum Update will be Thursday, November 15.
https://www-ops2.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=216152&ID=all