Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0481-Salmon: Fraser River Sockeye Update - June 30 - Areas 11 to 29
The Fraser River Panel met today, June 30 to review assessment data on Fraser
River sockeye salmon and complete the management plan for 2006 Fraser River
sockeye salmon fisheries in Panel Area waters.
The total return of Fraser River sockeye for 2006 is a forecast of 17,357,000.
Early Stuart and Early Summer-run sockeye are forecast to return at abundances
of 84,000 fish, and 1,303,000 fish, respectively. Summer-run sockeye stocks are
forecast to return at an abundance of 7,158,000 fish with most of the
production expected to come from the Quesnel and Chilko stock groups (4,613,000
and 1,689,000 fish, respectively). This is the dominant cycle year for Late
Shuswap sockeye (which includes the Adams River) and Late-run sockeye are
forecast to return at an abundance of 8,812,000 fish. This strong forecast
return is due in part to the low in-river mortality that they experienced and
the large spawning escapement of some Late-run stocks in the brood year. Late
Shuswap sockeye are expected to comprise a high fraction of the Late-run return
at 7,725,000; while Weaver and Birkenhead sockeye are forecast to return at
abundances of 411,000 and 433,000 fish, respectively. Cultus sockeye are
forecast to return at a level of 5,800 fish.
There is high uncertainty in the forecast of the total run size of Fraser
sockeye this season since most (71%) of the production is dependent on the
return of just two stock groups; Quesnel and Late Shuswap. The forecast for
Quesnel sockeye is particularly uncertain, in part because the fry from the
2002 brood year had a much smaller body size than average, which may result in
low marine survival.
The problem of early entry of Late-run sockeye stocks has continued every year
since 1995 and has resulted in significant in-river mortality during this
period. Management actions taken to compensate for this mortality have
substantially reduced harvest opportunities on these Late-run stocks as well as
co-migrating Summer-run sockeye. The 2006 management plan assumes that this
abnormal upstream migratory behavior and associated in-river mortality will
continue. However, based on the relative strength of the forecast Late-run
return in 2006, a flexible approach to Late-run sockeye management wherein
their escapement target will vary with in-season estimates of abundance and
upstream migration behavior. Additional management actions will be taken to
protect Cultus and Sakinaw sockeye.
Fishery openings in 2006 will be adjusted as required based on in-season
estimates of abundance and timing of sockeye, and on the corresponding spawning
escapement needs for each stock group. Conservation concerns for other species
and stocks will be taken into account throughout the 2006 management season.
The present forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye salmon that will
divert through Johnstone Strait in 2006 is 52%. The forecast 50% cumulative
migration timing of Early Stuart and Chilko (and Summer-run sockeye in
aggregate) sockeye through Area 20 are July 3 and August 9, respectively.
During the last two weeks of May, there were six days of record or near-record
high temperatures through portions of the Fraser watershed, which resulted in
snow-melt rates that were well above normal. Several of the snow-water indexes
in the Fraser River watershed to June 1 are now far below average: the upper
Fraser and Nechako were 30% and 61% of normal, respectively, while the middle
and lower Fraser were 53% and 84% of normal, respectively. Snow-water indices
in the north and south Thompson watersheds were 81% and 86% of normal,
respectively. Fraser River discharge levels and water temperatures will be
monitored closely this summer to determine specific management actions that are
required during the in-river migratory period to help achieve spawning
escapement goals for Early Stuart, Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye.
River entry timing for Late-run stocks will also be monitored, and management
adjustments will be adopted as necessary to increase the likelihood that
desired numbers of Late-run fish will reach the spawning grounds.
Sockeye have begun entering the marine and Fraser River assessment areas,
however it is too early to provide an update on the strength of the Early
Stuart sockeye migration. Migration conditions for sockeye entering the Fraser
River are presently satisfactory. The discharge of the Fraser River at Hope on
June 29 was 4,650 cms, which is approximately 30% lower than normal for this
date. The water temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on June 29 was
16.9 degrees C, which is over 2 degrees C warmer than average for this date.
The next scheduled update will be Friday p.m., July 7 following the next Fraser
River Panel meeting.
Author
Topic: Stuart Sockeye at Risk? (Read 11967 times)