Maybe not....
*
PATRICK BRETHOUR
Globe and Mail update
April 28, 2009 at 8:30 PM EDT
VANCOUVER — The BC Liberals and the NDP are in a statistical dead heat at the halfway point of the election campaign, despite negative personal numbers for both Gordon Campbell and Carole James, a poll just released by Angus Reid Strategies indicates.
The poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, gives the Liberals 42-per-cent support among decided voters, while the NDP get 39 per cent and the Green Party 13 per cent. The BC Conservative Party barely registers, with 3-per-cent support. For respondents “absolutely certain” to vote on May 12, the race is even tighter: the Liberals are at 43 per cent, the NDP at 41 per cent, the Greens at 12 per cent, and the BC Conservatives at 2 per cent. For both sets of results, the gap between the two main parties is within the margin of error, meaning that the poll is a statistical tie.
Other polls have given the Liberals as much as a 17 percentage point lead, but the previous Angus Reid Strategies poll released in late March had the party ahead of the NDP by just six points. However, tonight's poll indicates that the NDP has substantially closed that gap.
Regionally, the NDP is gaining the most ground in the north of the province (which Angus Reid Strategies deems to be Prince George and points north), where the party registers 45 per cent support, ahead of the Liberals at 41 per cent. In the Interior, the Liberals have the lead over the NDP, 41 to 37. The Liberals also lead in Vancouver and its suburbs, excluding Surrey, 43 to 37, as well as Surrey and the Fraser Valley, where they have 48 per cent to the New Democrats 37 per cent. The NDP leads on Vancouver Island, with 44 per cent to the Liberals' 34 per cent; support for the Greens is strongest in that part of the province, with the party hitting 16 per cent support.
British Columbia NDP Leader Carole James speaks to supporters during a campaign stop in Surrey, B.C., on Tuesday.
British Columbia NDP Leader Carole James speaks to supporters during a campaign stop in Surrey, B.C., on Tuesday. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)
Related Articles
Recent
* The B.C. Liberals lecture about judgment, but fail to exercise it
* Lawyer mum on whether Kinsella got his apology
* Top cop's disclosure: Better than never, but still late
The Globe and Mail
NDP support is rising, but public opinion on the party's leader is not. Ms. James' approval rating has dipped to 27 per cent, with 49 per cent disapproving of her performance. At the same time, she has seen a surge in the proportion of respondents who say their opinion of her has worsened in the past two months. In the latest poll, 35 per cent say their opinion has worsened, close to double the proportion who felt that way in late March. Ten per cent say their opinion of Ms. James has improved (a decline of four percentage points), while 48 per cent say their opinion is unchanged.
There is a similar picture for Mr. Campbell's momentum, although not as marked a deterioration as Ms. James has seen. Eight per cent of respondents say their opinion of the Liberal leader has improved over the last two months, with 54 per cent of respondents saying their opinion has stayed the same, and 33 per cent saying their opinion has worsened.
The online survey was conducted from April 24 to April 26 from a random sample of 822 adult residents of British Columbia, with results statistically weighted. The poll is deemed to be accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.