I have yet to figure out what good this tax will do to curb emissions, maybe this column gives the answer.
Campbell's carbon tax may go way of dodo
U.S. likely to go for cap-and-trade, just as NDP proposed
By Michael Smyth, The ProvinceMay 21
Province provincial affairs columnist
The front page of last Sunday's New York Times contained a story sure to annoy anyone who thinks Gordon Campbell's carbon tax is a bold stroke of environmental genius.
The article looked at President Barack Obama's policy approach to global warming and how his administration plans to curb the emission of greenhouse gases that cause it. (Here's a hint: It's not with a carbon tax.) Obama favours the "cap-and-trade" model, where the government places a ceiling on emissions and allows polluting industries to buy and sell permits to meet it.
"Cap-and-trade has been embraced by President Obama, Democratic leaders in Congress, mainstream environmental groups and a growing number of business interests, including energy-consuming industries like autos, steel and aluminum," the Times reported.
And while cap-and-trade rules the White House, the Obama administration has effectively ruled out a carbon tax for the U. S., the article said.
Why? Politics, mainly. When then- president Bill Clinton proposed a national energy tax back in the 1990s, the idea went down in flames and the Democrats lost control of Congress. Cap-and-trade, by contrast, is more politically salable. It has a proven U.S. track record, too, helping stop the environmental scourge of acid rain.
So where does all this leave little old British Columbia and Campbell's precious carbon tax? Out in the cold. The carbon tax is now effectively dead, south of the border. And if cap-and-trade becomes a reality in the U.S., Canada will surely follow suit, snuffing out any more carbon-tax brainstorms here as well.
In other words, British Columbia will be going it alone with a carbon tax, while the rest of North America takes a different path in the fight against global warming.
Is it any wonder Campbell now says he might strangle his own carbon-tax baby in the cradle? In one of the great under-reported stories of the B.C. election, Campbell revealed the carbon tax will be reviewed in 2012 and might be frozen in place at 7.24 cents per litre of gas and not rise any further.
"A lot of environmentalists want it to keep going up," Campbell told me on the campaign trail. "I think you have to find a balance. It could go up or you could leave it as it is." But wait: Isn't the whole point of a carbon tax to keep jacking it up every year until people stop burning those evil fossil fuels? Even Campbell's own climate-change adviser, economist Mark Jaccard, says the tax must rise to 24 cents a litre and higher over a decade and beyond to be effective.
But Campbell told me that may not be necessary, if cap-and-trade does the same job anyway. (Read more of the premier's comments at my blog, address listed below.) The irony here is that this is exactly what NDP Leader Carole James was arguing when she promised to scrap the carbon tax in favour of cap-and-trade. She was vilified for doing it while Campbell was hailed as some kind of visionary.
My prediction: As cap-and-trade becomes the standard for North America, Campbell's carbon tax will be frozen and forgotten, though it will have served its political purpose of softening his hard-edged image.
msmyth@theprovince.com
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