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[Rodney]

And the difference is.......??

Are you serious? The difference is that contracted scientists follow scientific methodology to obtain their results. How the upper level wishes to take action based on those results is beyond their control.

Just apply logic to it... I didn't realize a B Sc., M Sc. and Ph D are that useless. If only Fisheries and Oceans Canada could get rid of all the qualified individuals and hire those who could apply logic. Logic is definitely not subjective at all...

The problem with a discussion forum such as this is that anyone can participate and majority of the participants do not have a scientific background. When one presents some information with no scientific basis, another takes it as a fact. Plenty of information presented so far is either misinformation that has been taken as fact or theories derived from that information that has been taken as logic. This is not to suggest those who do not have a scientific background lack the interlligence to participate, but simply are not qualified to do so. Same as that I wouldn't dare to make suggestions to a home builder, plumber or electrician on how they should do their job, because I have absolutely no training in these fields.

[jon5hill]

From my understanding, Alexandra Morton is not a marine biologist nor is she even a scientist on any accredited level. I have heard her debate her side with actual marine biologists and her arguments fail and when they do she switches to fear mongering.

Alexandra Morton graduated from the American University in Washington D.C. with Bachelor of Science

If you have actually read the journals, published in the most widely read and highly regarded scientific literature that clearly and very elegantly demonstrates that sea louse are responsible for the death of thousands of juvenile pink salmon in the Broughton Archipelago, then you might have a different perspective.

[Rodney]

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, August 18 to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon runs and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed. Test fishing catches of Fraser sockeye have continued to be generally been low over the past several days. However, the marine migration of some Fraser sockeye stocks is more protracted than was expected, which has caused some run size assessments to increase slightly. At the meeting today, the run size estimate of 175,000 Early Summer-run sockeye was unchanged, while the estimate of 600,000 Summer-run sockeye was increased to 700,000 fish with 50% marine timing through Area 20 of August 6. The Panel adopted a run size estimate of 100,000 fish for the Birkenhead stock-group, which is below their 90% probability level forecast of 132,000 fish. Their estimated 50% marine timing through Area 20 is August 18, which is seven days later than expected. At the meeting today, the run size estimate of Harrison sockeye was increased from 150,000 fish to 200,000 fish, which exceeds their 25% probability level forecast of 160,000 fish. The estimated peak marine timing of Harrison sockeye through Area 20 is August 8, which is five days later than expected. The Panel also approved a run size estimate for Weaver/Shuswap sockeye of 250,000 fish, which is slightly below their 75% probability level forecast of 277,000 fish. Their estimated 50% marine timing through Area 20 is August 19, which is seven days later than expected. The estimate of total True Late-run sockeye abundance is 450,000 fish, which is the sum of the estimates of Harrison and Weaver/Shuswap sockeye abundances. The estimated total Fraser sockeye return this season is currently 1,510,000 fish, which is less than half of their 90% probability level forecast of 3,556,000 fish.

Test fishing catches of pink salmon in marine areas have generally been increasing over the past week. Assessments of the abundance of Fraser River pink salmon will be made near their expected peak migration through the marine approach areas, which usually occurs in late August. On August 17 the Fraser River discharge at Hope was approximately 2,800 cms, which is 20% lower than average for this date, while the water temperature at Qualark Creek was 18.1 0C, which is 0.6 0C higher than average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures are forecast to increase to almost 20 0C by August 26. Water temperatures exceeding 19 0C may cause stress to sockeye and slow their upstream migration.

Due to the low abundance of Fraser sockeye thus far this season, there have been no directed commercial fisheries for Fraser River sockeye. All commercial fisheries in Panel Area waters remain closed to fishing at the present time.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on August 21, 2009.

[Frankey]

Thanks for the updated info Rodney!

[GoldHammeredCroc]

Yes, thanks again Rodney.  Nice to see some success stories on the horizon and should make for a busier fall season.

Slightly off topic but follows a couple of other posts here, while there have been many reports and publications from concerned parties about how sea lice impact migrating juvenile salmonids, where are the reports from the industry actually proving that they don't?  I wouldn't mind seeing some additional work from third party researchers (with relevant training of course in natural salmonid migration + knowledge of a working fish farm), but who have no allegiance to any sector of the industry to produce unbiased reports. 

Wouldn't it be a relief to find out that there is no impact on their migration from the fish farms?  Next step would be to find out what is the root of the problem - sewage outfalls, low oxygenated water in the strait, massive predation from hake, huge shoals of mackerel lurking off our coast?  If it does have a massive impact, then steps need to be addressed, because stocks won't last too long with that immediate impact on their way out plus all of BC's resident's demand (Sporties, FN, and commerical) on their return.  Throw in high temperatures in the Fraser as well as spawning tributary streams, decreasing snow pack levels, loss of spawning habitat....

The list goes on.

[alwaysfishn]

Are you serious? The difference is that contracted scientists follow scientific methodology to obtain their results. How the upper level wishes to take action based on those results is beyond their control.

When I think of DFO I think of them as one department. As a department I believe they are politically not scientifically directed. Which begs the question, why would a scientist with any sort of personal integrity continue to work for someone who twists or misstates their science in order to further a political agenda?

[Rodney]

When I think of DFO I think of them as one department. As a department I believe they are politically not scientifically directed.

And that is the problem which I have pointed out again and again. Perhaps getting to know some of the staff and how things are done is a better approach before start criticizing on items that you are not familiar with.

Believing, assuming, generalizing are not to be confused with knowing, which many are doing in these threads, on all sides of the issue.

why would a scientist with any sort of personal integrity continue to work for someone who twists or misstates their science in order to further a political agenda?

Because individuals in the field that they are trained in prefer to work in a governing body where changes can take place, even if the chance is slim. The alternative (lack of job security, working individually to hopefully achieve the same result) is not that appealing.

Some do end up leaving after having had enough.

[alwaysfishn]

And that is the problem which I have pointed out again and again. Perhaps getting to know some of the staff and how things are done is a better approach before start criticizing on items that you are not familiar with.

Believing, assuming, generalizing are not to be confused with knowing, which many are doing in these threads, on all sides of the issue.

Because individuals in the field that they are trained in prefer to work in a governing body where changes can take place, even if the chance is slim. The alternative (lack of job security, working individually to hopefully achieve the same result) is not that appealing.

Some do end up leaving after having had enough.

I can see that you know some individuals that are in that situation and it is obvious I do not. I can to some extent appreciate the circumstances that they work in and my criticism is in no way pointed at any individual.

I believe that this type of forum provides one of the few opportunities for a lot of people to discuss/criticize/complement, individuals/issues/organizations. In the process everyone learns. Just because someone is unfamiliar or misinformed with an issue it shouldn't eliminate them from the discussion. In the end I believe people form opinions through the discussion, whether the opinions are the truth probably depends on who you ask. 

[Frankey]

I would think Alexandra Morton is a hero! Her knowledge and scientific studies of the affect of sea lice on junevile salmon makes her more then qualified to be the spokesperson on this issue.I would say shes an expert on the topic and I for one applaud her efforts and actions.Thank you Alex

[Rodney]

Friday, August 21, 2009

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, August 21 to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon runs and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed. The migration of Fraser sockeye through the marine approach routes has continued at low abundance levels over the past week. At the meeting today Fraser sockeye run size estimates were unchanged: 175,000 Early Summer-run; 700,000 Summer-run; 100,000 Birkenhead; 200,000 Harrison; and 250,000 Weaver/Shuswap sockeye. The marine migration of Fraser River pink salmon through the assessment areas has been increasing over the past week. It is too early to provide a run size estimate for Fraser River pink salmon since their forecast peak migration period through the marine assessment areas has not yet occurred. However, present assessments indicate that Fraser pinks are tracking abundance levels near or exceeding their 75% probability level forecast of 12,490,000 fish, depending on assumptions about their marine migration timing.

On August 20 the Fraser River discharge at Hope was approximately 2,500 cms, which is about 25% lower than normal, while the water temperature at Qualark Creek was 18.9 0C, which is 1.4 0C higher than average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to increase to 19.4 0C by August 26 and then decline. Water temperatures exceeding 19 0C may cause stress to sockeye and slow their upstream migration.

All commercial fisheries in Panel Area waters remain closed to fishing at the present time.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on August 25, 2009.

[Easywater]

"The estimated total non-commercial catch of Fraser sockeye this season is 61,000 fish; harvested in test fisheries and First Nations FSC fisheries."

The total estimated FN catch so far is 15,923 Sockeye (http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fraserriver/firstnations/HTMLs/SockeyeKeptCatch.html)

Add a zero to that and you are getting close.

[Rodney]

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, August 25 to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon runs and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

The migration of Fraser sockeye through Juan de Fuca Strait has declined considerably in recent days, while in Johnstone Strait there has been low but steady migration. At the meeting today the run size estimates of 175,000 Early Summer-run and 450,000 True Late-run sockeye were unchanged. The run size estimate of 700,000 Summer-run sockeye was decreased to 650,000 fish, with 50% migration timing through Area 20 of August 4. The Panel also reduced the run size estimate for the Birkenhead stock-group from 100,000 fish to 60,000 fish, with 50% migration timing through Area 20 of August 12.

The marine migration of Fraser River pink salmon through the assessment areas has continued to be strong over the past several days. It is too early to provide a run size estimate for Fraser River pink salmon since their forecast peak migration period through the marine assessment areas has not yet occurred. However, present assessments indicate that Fraser pinks are tracking abundance levels exceeding their 75% probability level forecast of 12,490,000 fish. On August 24 the Fraser River discharge at Hope was approximately 2,400 cms, which is about 25% lower than normal, while the water temperature at Qualark Creek was 18.3 0C, which is 1.3 0C higher than average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to average approximately 18 0C over the next ten days.

The Panel announced the following regulations for Panel Area waters directed at the harvest of pink salmon:

CANADIAN FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

Remain closed to fishing.

UNITED STATES FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

TREATY INDIAN FISHERY:

Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: Open to drift gillnets from 12:00 p.m. (noon), Wednesday, August 26, 2009 to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Saturday, August 29, 2009. All sockeye caught are for ceremonial and subsistence use only.

NON INDIAN FISHERY:

Areas 7 and 7A: Open to reefnets with non-retention of sockeye from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Wednesday, August 26, 2009; 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Thursday, August 27, 2009; and from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Friday, August 28, 2009.

(Note: U. S. Non-Treaty fishers should check the U.S. hotline and WDFW regulations before fishing as there are additional State of Washington regulations, including time restrictions that may be in effect).

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on August 26, 2009.

[mattyo]

Lookin good for the pinks . I might actually be able to catch a salmon this season

[Steelhawk]

If the pinks are running strong, whatever happened to the sockeyes? Don't they share the same migration route?

[FishOn]

Not too sure if they share the same migration route, or not, but they certainly don't have the same life cycle. Sockeye are on a 4 year cycle while pinks are on a 2 year cycle. The sockeye that are returning now entered the ocean 2 years sooner than the pinks that are returning now, so you can't really compare the two.

What's more intriguing is why are the Fraser sockeye runs so dismal while other sockeye runs on the Westcoast, Northern BC and Alaska are so strong?