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[troutbreath]

The Sockeye will be poached before their poached!

[Geff_t]

Yup we all know they will get them all. They will also use this an a excuse for over fishing. All that will be said is "they where going to die anyways" .

[ynot]

apart from the natives,in 2006 the commercial fleet went 1 million over their limit. of course the blame will be warm water in the river and other b.s.

[Rodney]

The downsize of the pre-season forecast has no relationship with harvest of their broods by different sectors, not that this would convince those who already have their mind set on who to blame.

Pre-season run size estimation is based on several factors - spawning escapement count, mortality at spawning stage due to warm water temperature, estimation of out-migrating of smolts, which are AFTER harvest has taken place. These numbers are used in the prediction model, which is developed from historic sockeye return data. Run size numbers are established at different probability level. The higher the probability, the lower the run size estimation is. The number released to the media is usually at the 50% level. For several years now, the actual run size has been lower than the estimation at 50% probability.

A certain of number of smolts go out, you expect a certain number of adults to return. It's not happening, because ocean condition (natural, artificial or both) has not been favourable for pacific salmon at their adult phase.

Anyway, back to the rhetorics instead of focusing on facts and solutions.

[Geff_t]

Well the only solution would be to close the harvest of all sockeye by all groups. Unfortunately this will only happen when they are all gone. Then it moves on to the other salmon until there is no more salmon left except for what is in the fish farms.

[searun17]

Ya know,truthfully,all the politics that encompass our sockeye fishery frankly are starting to get overly bothersome,when it really comes down to it how do we really know what the governments real agenda is regarding these fish,how accurate are the DFO counts?in my opinion not very at all,when was the last time and how often over the years have their estimates even come close,coincidence or maybe done for a reason?personally i don't for one minute trust the well being of our resources being taken care of by our government,i think there is to many behind the scenes agendas with the gov for these fish to ever have a legitimate  chance to reach the once prolific numbers we once were used to seeing.

[jetboatjim]

2 factors that impact the sockeye, #1 is over fishing by the NATIVES , #2 sea lice.

So Rodney what do you feel is a good start to solving these problems?

[Rodney]

time wasted again

[searun17]

OK ,fact,for several years now we have watched the decline of our sockeye and coho,steelhead stocks  ,what is the solution?eliminate the sea lice problem , ,stop the over fishing and poaching, stop the gravel removal and degradation of our fish bearing streams,curtail urban sprawl,and I'm sure there are many other solutions to the problem but as i said in my previous post i don't trust our governments agenda ,it all comes down to big business and the all mighty dollar and this wont change the poor state of our fishery until there is full commitment from the gov and ALL user groups to do what is best for the resource.

[DragonSpeed]

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 28 to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser River sockeye runs and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
[...]

....Fraser River water temperatures are forecast to reach 21.7 0C by August 5. If this forecasted water temperature occurs, it will be the highest Fraser River water temperature in the data-set spanning almost 100 years.

[...]

Ouch. 

[goblin59]

In my opinion it's ocean conditions and sea lice from far too many fish farms all along the coast that are having the biggest impact on the sockeye stocks. Little can be done about ocean conditions, but certainly something can be done about the fish farms. I realize that industry won't be going away, but the need to move to closed pen farms must happen or before we know it the sockeye and other salmon will be gone.

[Terry D]

When all the salmon are gone, can we turn the Fraser into a carp fishery?  There'd be plenty of sport for us anglers then.

[Robert_G]

With the threat of the Fraser nearing 22 degrees, any other speculation is irrelevant.
The fish that do come up the river will be floating back down belly up.

[Dave]

22 ° C is indeed serious stuff to sockeye; all salmonids.  Those Early Stuarts that are now in the Nechako - Stuart system are experiencing temperatures typically 2 degrees warmer than the Fraser, possibly 24°...  that means a greater pre-spawning mortality and fish that do arrive on the spawning grounds are basically unable to spawn.
The early/summer run of sockeye is pretty much what is left of the once bountiful Fraser sockeye runs.  Some of these stocks, like ES, have always been on the edge, survival wise, as Hudson Bay Company documents show but the low water levels and increasing water temperatures now happening in the Fraser and tributaries put the much more abundant stocks like Horsefly, Mitchell and Chilko ( yeah, even Chilko) at risk.
 
If these temperatures continue during the summer migration (Quesnel, Chilko) I hope DFO and all user groups unite to curtail any fishing.

Hope for big rain in the interior, soon, to alleviate this potential risk.

[Nai965]

Hi Everyone , I have been following FWR for about 8 yrs now. I have heard professional opinions to amateur ones. But it is this type of discussion which opens minds and hearts. My suggestion for fish farms is to build them inland , have canals bringing water to and  from the sea, not too far inland but not too close too. Have couple of dams or locks to prevent fish escaping and cross breeding or contaminating the wild stock.

I think this is being done in some countries. Just a suggestion,

Tks,
Raj