I couldn't find the Stat's Can analysis only a commentary from the Victoria Times Colonist who apparently commissioned a study??
Of course we all know how impartial the Victoria Times columnist is!
I'll keep looking for the Stat's Canada analysis though.... I don't have badminton to go to...
just got back from badminton and here is the article.
VICTORIA — The average B.C. household could take a hit of $521 to its bottom line next year as a result of the harmonized sales tax, according to a model prepared for the Victoria Times Colonist by Statistics Canada.
The change could range anywhere from $78 for households with single parents and one child to $801 for a married couple with no children, the figures show.
"There are certainly individuals and households that will feel the impact of this tax," said Dr. Herbert Schuetze, economics professor at the University of Victoria. "For example if you are unattached and 65 years or older we're talking about $262 a year. That's a considerable amount of money for some people."
At the request of the Victoria Times Colonist, Statistics Canada analyzed 15 different household types and 15 different income classifications using its social policy simulation database and model.
The model is used by the federal government and other organizations to analyze financial interactions between government and individuals.
For the HST analysis, it synthesized four databases — the Survey of Household Spending, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, EI claimant history and personal income tax returns — to establish a synthetic sample of B.C. households. The weighted total of households in the sample was 1.935 million.
Statistics Canada determined what that synthetic sample spent on various items, its household income and characteristics and then followed the rules of the income tax system and applied all of the rebates, tax credits and rules surrounding the HST and GST to the sample to determine the impact of the tax.
The figures suggest the more money households bring in, the more they will pay out.
For example, a household with an annual income of $40,000 to $50,000 will pay $253 more because of the HST, while households in the $80,000 to $90,000 range will pay $1,128 more annually.
"It looks like families get hit pretty hard," Schuetze said.
Statistics Canada model incorporated a number of initiatives designed to offset the effects of the tax.
Those include a B.C. HST credit of up to $230 annually to low-income households, an increase to the personal tax credit, a rebate for home energy and point-of-sale rebates for a number of other items.
Yet each of the 30 household types for which Statistics Canada provided figures shows some negative impact as a result of the HST.
That does not jibe with material in the March provincial budget, although the parameters for the government's analysis were not the same as those used by Statistics Canada.
The budget documents showed a family of four with $30,000 of income coming out ahead $535 annually, while a family of four with an income of $60,000 would spend an extra $107 a year and a family of four with an income of $90,000 would spend $178.
According to the province, single individuals with an income of $80,000 faced a $314 increase in spending, while single people with $25,000 incomes would end up $2 ahead and a senior couple with an income of $30,000 up $1 annually.
The model Statistics Canada used for the Victoria Times Colonist analysis did not take into account the effect of the HST on housing, which is significant.
Previously new homes were exempt from provincial sales tax. Starting July 1, they will be subject to the HST, although purchasers will be eligible for a rebate on the provincial portion of the tax up to a maximum of $26,250.
The model also assumed all costs to business as well as savings a business might realize as a result of the HST would be passed on to consumers.
But perhaps the largest unknown is behavioural change caused by the new tax.
Schuetze said that is a significant caveat.
"It may be an overestimation of the impact in part because there's no change in consumption assumed here," he said. The Statistics Canada model assumed households would spend as much as they did pre-HST, something that is unlikely to happen.
Indeed dozens of Victoria residents for this series said they would be cutting back on unnecessary expenditures after July 1.
"I may have to make some cutbacks like eating out and I will have to think more before I spend," said Jeff McKay, a 33-year-old executive with Oak Bay Marine Group.
"I will have to be more careful," said Caitlin Flanders, 24, who works for the Queen's Printer. "Going out for coffee or lunches, which I don't do that much anyway, I won't do as often because of that tax."