Looks like Carp will be on the menu.
Three years of low sockeye returns predicted
Last year's abundant fisheries will not be repeated this year, biologist explains
By Randy Shore, Vancouver SunApril 20, 2011
A modest number of sockeye salmon are predicted to return to the Fraser River this year and the next two, despite the abundance of fish that returned last summer.
"I expect we will see between three and five million sockeye this summer," said Pacific Salmon Commission biologist Mike Lapointe. Return estimates are released every spring in the Integrated Fisheries Management Plan by Fisheries and Oceans Canada.
Although 34.5 million sockeye returned to the river in 2010, there is no reason to believe such a run will be repeated this year. The sockeye has a four-year life cycle, which means this year's returns are dictated in part by the number of fish that spawned in 2007.
"Returns were low in 2007 with only 1.5 million fish and 900,000 spawners, so expectations are low," Lapointe said. "We expect about 3.2 million sockeye based on the recent productivity scenario and about 4.6 million based on the long-term average."
The long-term average predicts sockeye returns of about five fish for every spawner, and in that context, last year's seemingly massive sockeye run wasn't far above what would have been expected, about seven returning fish for every spawner, Lapointe said.
Dismal 2009 returns prompted the federal government to launch the Cohen Commission inquiry into the decline of the Fraser River sockeye fishery.
What went right for the sockeye in 2010 is as mysterious as what went wrong for the returning sockeye in 2007, 2008 and 2009.
rshore@vancouversun.com© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun
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