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[Bassonator]

Dont let the door hit you on the way out......

[VAGAbond]

The reference document compares average returns with the 2012 P90 forecast of 6.6 M .    That makes 2012 look not bad.   Shouldn't the comparison be to the P50 forecast for 2012 of 1.9 M fish making the expected 2012 return rather poor.  Do I detect a little bit of spin here?

[aquapaloosa]

Funny how when an individual apposed to salmon farms post stuff there is a discussion back and forth, sharing information and ideas.  When an individual posts pro information on the topic it explodes into pissy verbal exchanges where the content is just avoided.  

Thanks Vaga for at least reading the link.  Some hear refuse to even read them so they have stated.  How odd is this.  
  There are some interesting comments at the end of that link as well.

Could you expand on your post a little?  Its the P50 thing I am wondering about.

[Easywater]

Funny how when an individual apposed to salmon farms post stuff there is a discussion back and forth, sharing information and ideas.  When an individual posts pro information on the topic it explodes into pissy verbal exchanges where the content is just avoided.  

Umm, might have something to do with the fact that 99.9% of the people here are pro-wild salmon which makes them anti-farmed salmon.
I mentioned this before - it's like posting on the PETA site that people should eat tainted beef - not very welcome & no one believes you.

There's only 5 or so of you that are promoting farmed salmon:
Aquapaloosa - fish farm worker
Absolon - fish farm worker
Bassonator - not sure why
Shuswapsteve - not sure why
Dave - ex-govt pro fish farm

[StillAqua]

None because the courts ruled last year Fish farms are under federal jurisdiction now not provincial.

 I think personally they are harming wild salmon, just look what happened to native fish in Norway and Chile and now here. it does not take a rocket scientist to figure things out.

Might not be Federal responsibility for much longer.......if you read the changes Harper et al are planning to make to the Fisheries Act, they have opened the door so they can download Fed fish responsibilities to the Provinces.

You're right that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out....it takes many fish scientists, virologists, oceanographers, parasitologists, aquatic ecologists ..........

[Dave]

Hey, this thread is getting interesting again.  You bet I promote farming Atlantics but I also work hard to protect wild salmon; spent half the afternoon attempting that.  I believe the two can co- exist, especially in BC.

[shuswapsteve]

Rod-- your board, you can make the rules... but there comes a time when the BS that is being fed us by the mocking, all knowing (NOT) fish farm apologists does NOT deserve a gentlemanly response.     Go back on  the board and have a close look at the spin that these guys have put on Alex Morton.  She deserves an Order of Canada, not the derision she is having dumped upon her by the likes a few here .   The tactics that the fish farm industry use to discredit anyone that disagrees with them smacks of the same tactics the tobacco industry unleashed on the public when we finally woke up that smoking is bad for living creatures (us). Oh ya-- seems to me I remember something about the the fish farm industry hiring the same spin doctors that the tobacco industry used....... just a coincidence , right???

Guess I will go  over to the knuckledraggers  board ( Gee-- I wonder where that mocking phrase came from???   Oh! It was one of the fish farm apologists on this board ) where they call this BS for what it is. 

I find it hilarious when anti-fish farm opponents seem to call foul when the questions start to become too hard to answer.  Contrary to what you might believe Ms Morton is not untouchable.  The fact is that Ms Morton is a RPBio who is involved in a very controversial issue, making some very controversial claims.  Seeing as though Ms Morton has shown no mercy on her blog for governmental scientists and regulatory agencies I believe it is only fair that those that she accuses of wrongdoing are allowed to defend themselves.  Morton and other high profile fish farm opponents have spared no expense to call out governmental scientists/biologists, regulatory agencies and industry representatives and publicly question their professionalism, research and ethics.  During the aquaculture testimony at the Cohen Inquiry, Ms Morton chose to post a cartoon of governmental scientists which seem to suggest that they were engaging in deception.  She also attacked Dick Beamish on her blog calling for his Order of Canada to be revoked.  Apparently, speaking or acting disparagingly of a colleague registered biologist is acceptable when it agrees with fish farm opponents’ point of view.

Although the thread title on this forum may suggest otherwise, the content of the post (http://salmonfarmscience.com/2012/05/10/context-counts-and-sexy-graphs-help/) is not derogatory and makes no rude remarks about Ms Morton.  The website attempts to challenge Ms Morton’s conclusions with relevant information.  The instant reaction from fish farm opponents is to lash out in some pretty juvenile attacks with little reference to the actual issue.

[shuswapsteve]

The reference document compares average returns with the 2012 P90 forecast of 6.6 M .    That makes 2012 look not bad.   Shouldn't the comparison be to the P50 forecast for 2012 of 1.9 M fish making the expected 2012 return rather poor.  Do I detect a little bit of spin here?

It could be considered a bit of spin because forecasts are done over a range of probabilities and not just one.  However, one of the other fish forums on the internet (i.e. knuckledragger site as it has been called) was no better in its description of the forecast.  What people need to do is read the forecast for themselves and direct their questions to the person at the end of the document.  This way you get an accurate account of what the forecast is saying instead of hearing second-hand commentary from other blog sites.

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/SAR-AS/2012/2012_011-eng.pdf

Resource management typically uses the 50P, but in reaility forecasts can be highly uncertain due to variable survival rates from egg to adult.  Forecasting is only one step in a much broader stock assessment cycle which includes inseason test fisheries, catch monitoring, and spawning escapement surveys.

[shuswapsteve]

Umm, might have something to do with the fact that 99.9% of the people here are pro-wild salmon which makes them anti-farmed salmon.
I mentioned this before - it's like posting on the PETA site that people should eat tainted beef - not very welcome & no one believes you.

There's only 5 or so of you that are promoting farmed salmon:
Aquapaloosa - fish farm worker
Absolon - fish farm worker
Bassonator - not sure why
Shuswapsteve - not sure why
Dave - ex-govt pro fish farm

That is your opinion and you are entitled to it; however, I suggest you know very little about the people you accuse and what they do day to day to help wild salmon.  I have never been one to jump on the bandwagon with others who believe they are right because they seem to have strength in numbers.  Makes no difference to me.  I am not really concerned if you or the 99.9% (as you call it) welcome my input or not.  I will let Rodney and the moderators do their job and toss out my posts if they deem them not appropriate.  Have a nice evening.

[troutbreath]

ProFishfarmSteve..........I don't think you post on anything else but fishfarming. The pro side of it. So your really being a one issue kind of guy if you don't mind me saying.

[VAGAbond]

Could you expand on your post a little?  Its the P50 thing I am wondering about.

See Table 7-11 on page 82 0f the 2012 Fishing Management Plan at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/57165894/2012%20IFMPs/Draft%203-%20SC%20Salmon%20IFMP%20April%2030_clean%20copy.pdf   

I would add the table here if I knew how.

Anyhow, P90 for 2012 Fraser Sockeye is the 90% probability that the run will be less than 6.6 M fish.   There are is a full range of probabilities reported.    P50 is a 50% probability that the run will be smaller than 1.9 M fish.    And so on to P10 that is a 10% probability that the run will be less than 0.8 M fish.    The mean run estimate for 2012 is 3.8 M fish compared to a mean run size for all cycles of 7.6 M fish.

Where I work we use a P90 estimate to decide on a transport capability we provide, leaving a 10% probability that the need will not be met.  For fish harvest the statistics seem backwards to me.   Shouldn't the harvest be decided on a probability that the run size will be larger, not smaller, than the estimating point?

[shuswapsteve]

See Table 7-11 on page 82 0f the 2012 Fishing Management Plan at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/57165894/2012%20IFMPs/Draft%203-%20SC%20Salmon%20IFMP%20April%2030_clean%20copy.pdf  

I would add the table here if I knew how.

Anyhow, P90 for 2012 Fraser Sockeye is the 90% probability that the run will be less than 6.6 M fish.   There are is a full range of probabilities reported.    P50 is a 50% probability that the run will be smaller than 1.9 M fish.    And so on to P10 that is a 10% probability that the run will be less than 0.8 M fish.    The mean run estimate for 2012 is 3.8 M fish compared to a mean run size for all cycles of 7.6 M fish.

Where I work we use a P90 estimate to decide on a transport capability we provide, leaving a 10% probability that the need will not be met.  For fish harvest the statistics seem backwards to me.   Shouldn't the harvest be decided on a probability that the run size will be larger, not smaller, than the estimating point?

A change was made in the 2010 forecast on how probabilities in the document are conveyed to the public.  Before 2010, the lowest probability was associated with the highest forecast.  However, from a conservation perspective it was decided that the reporting the probability of returning below the specified forecast was more suitable.  However, I see your point that it appears to be counter intuitive.  Maybe Troutbreath will be a little easier on me for posting about something more than salmon farm protesters.

[shuswapsteve]

ProFishfarmSteve..........I don't think you post on anything else but fishfarming. The pro side of it. So your really being a one issue kind of guy if you don't mind me saying.

It's because some fish farm opponents are such fun loving people I can't help but reply.     

[aquapaloosa]

Thanks for your response Vaga.  Forecasting salmon stocks is new to me. 

[alwaysfishn]

Thanks for your response Vaga.  Forecasting salmon stocks is new to me. 

The concern for forecasting salmon stocks is likely foreign to most pro fish farmers. It is understandable......

Why be concerned about something that may point to harm caused by your industry?