I believe this threads was about Fraser River bound Chinook, not ocean caught fish, large majority of Ocean caught fish at this time are headed for Washington, Oregon and California.
As far as Fraser Chinooks go it is blatantly obvious to anyone and DFO that early run Chinooks are in dire straights, hence the no fishing until late July and now August that we are subjected too. Hopefully mother nature sorts this out and provides more early fish to the spawning grounds. What really sucks is we are experiencing good marine conditions now, and nothing is being done in regards to enhancing these stocks, when el nino and low water seasons return it could get ugly.
Test sets are pretty good at revealing the numbers in my experience, good numbers in the test sets always resulted in better catches, but with visibility horrible the last few years, I have'nt done alot of early season Chinook Fishing in the Fraser. Historically lots of Chinook began entering the Fraser as early as mid March, that has all changed in recent years, with a majority of the Fraser Chinook that are doing well being mid July till early september fish and then the Fall Chinook enter the lower tribs in early September till late October, lots of these around last few years with last season being dynamite on the Harrison system.