I think Chris is correct , highly unlikely. I have posted the lastest info for you.
Category(s):
ABORIGINAL - General Information,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Subject: FN0723-Salmon: Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29- August 10, 2012
First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries for sockeye are underway in
all areas. Fishers are requested to check for opening times and any
restrictions in their local areas. There are no planned commercial or
recreational sockeye fisheries at this time.
An update from the August 10th Fraser River Panel meeting follows:
The Fraser River Panel met August 10 to review assessment data on Fraser River
sockeye salmon, plan fisheries and discuss sockeye migration conditions in the
Fraser River watershed. Marine test fisheries indicate declining migration of
Fraser sockeye over recent days. DNA analyses indicate that the stock
composition of Fraser River sockeye in the marine approach routes is currently
approximately 5 per cent Early Summer-run, 80 per cent Summer-run, and 15 per
cent Late-run sockeye. The diversion rate of Fraser River sockeye through
Johnstone Strait has been increasing recently and is presently estimated at
37%. Estimates of sockeye passage in the Fraser River past the Mission
hydroacoustic site have been strong over the last several days. The observer at
Hells Gate has reported a large migration of sockeye over the past few days.
Early Summer-run sockeye continue to display a broad, multi-peak marine
migration profile, which has resulted in numerous run size increases this
season. At the Panel meeting on August 6 the Panel increased the run size
estimate for Early Summer-run sockeye from 510,000 fish to 530,000 fish. At the
Panel meeting on August 7, the run size estimate for Early Summer-run sockeye
was increased to 550,000 fish and at the meeting August 10 the run size
estimate was unchanged. The estimated 50 per cent marine timing of Early Summer-
run sockeye through Area 20 is currently estimated to be July 16, which is the
timing that was expected during pre-season planning. The estimated escapement
of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission through August 9 is 477,000 fish.
At the meeting on August 7, the Panel agreed that Summer-run sockeye run size
estimates were consistent with the pre-season forecast of 1,585,000 fish. At
the meeting August 10 the Summer-run sockeye run size estimate was unchanged.
The estimated 50% marine timing of Summer-run sockeye through Area 20 is
currently estimated to be August 5, which is four days later than expected. DNA
analyses indicate that Chilko sockeye are continuing to contribute a large
portion of the Summer-run sockeye abundance migrating through marine assessment
areas. The estimated escapement of Summer-run sockeye past Mission through
August 9 is 613,000 fish.
At the meeting August 10, the Panel approved a run size estimate of 200,000
Late-run sockeye. A large portion of the Late-run sockeye return this season is
expected to be comprised of five year old Birkenhead and Weaver sockeye and
assessments conducted to-date are consistent with this expectation. The
estimated escapement of Late-run sockeye past Mission through August 9 is
101,000 fish.
On August 9 the discharge of the Fraser River at Hope was approximately 4,700
cms, which is approximately 18% above average for this date. The temperature of
the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on August 8 was 19.4 degrees Celsius, which
is 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than average for this date. The Panel manages
fisheries to provide additional Fraser sockeye above the spawning escapement
targets through application of management adjustments. The management
adjustments help ensure that the escapement targets are met, which off-sets en
route mortality and other factors that could affect meeting spawning escapement
targets. At the Panel meeting on August 6, after reviewing environmental and
stock assessment information, the Panel approved a decrease in the management
adjustment factor for Early Summer-run sockeye from 0.58 to 0.54. At the Panel
meeting on August 7 it was reduced to 0.49 and at the meeting August 10 it was
unchanged.
Total catch to date in all fisheries is approximately 290,000. Total escapement
into the river to date is approximately 1,269,000 sockeye. Total in-season run
size is approximately 2,515,000.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser Panel is scheduled for Tuesday August
14, 2012.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Barry Rosenberger 250-851-4892
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0723
Sent August 10, 2012 at 15:04
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