adriaticum,
True, the days of supplying folks here or abroad with commercially caught BC wild salmon is not what it used to be, but there is more to it than that. One thing you need to remember is the allocation of the resource and the pecking order for the various stakeholders. For instance, recreational fisheries for salmon (i.e. Sockeye) will open once DFO establishes that conservation and FSC needs are met. Conservation objectives (and additional objectives in the future) can curtail commercial and recreational fisheries. These conservation concerns could be endangered stocks like Cultus Sockeye and Interior Fraser Coho. Many Upper Fraser Chinook stocks could soon follow. Currently, in the non-tidal Fraser River from Mission to Hope, if a harvestable surplus of Fraser Sockeye is not being detected and if there is concern that First Nation FSC needs or conservation concerns won’t be met there won’t be any recreational Sockeye fishery in that area. Additionally, if escapement plans in the Integrated Fisheries Management Plan are not being met you and other recreational anglers will likely have your salmon fishing closed altogether. That’s reality. It does not matter if there are only 4.5 million people in this province and we have decided as a collective to not export a single wild salmon across our borders and keep them all to ourselves. Not all 4.5 million people in this province have the same access to wild salmon. Many people do not like it, but that’s how it is.
For Fraser River Sockeye, management adjustments can be made inseason which can affect whether stakeholders have access to Sockeye or not. Inputs such as Fraser River water temperature and water flow (along with biological data) can influence management adjustments. These adjustments are made to ensure more Fraser Sockeye make it to the spawning grounds. They account for enroute loss due to unfavourable environmental conditions during upriver migration so it will allow for more Fraser Sockeye to pass by Mission. Allowing for more escapement means less for all stakeholders. As was indicated in Cohen’s report and reinforced by Technical Report #9 (Climate Change), the Fraser River has experienced 2 degree Celsius warming in the summer as compared to 60 years ago. Late Run Sockeye that enter the Fraser early may experience water temperatures 5 degrees Celsius warmer than they normally would. Temperature and water flow are big factors in the equation and will play a more prominent role in the years ahead. Female Fraser Sockeye experience increased mortality when compared to males during poor environmental conditions (specifically higher than optimal water temperatures). This will undoubtedly impact First Nations, commercial fisherman and recreational anglers (people like you).
In addition to what I already mentioned in my previous post there are clearly significant challenges ahead (hence the title of Cohen's report). I don’t think everything is just going to fall apart right away and nobody is going to be able to catch a salmon, but it is not as sustainable as you may think for our own province. Definitely your access to them is not guaranteed and will likely be impacted greatly in the future.
As for the decline in the lumber industry in BC there is more to it than over-harvesting. The downturn in the US housing market, the price of lumber, our long dispute with the US over softwood lumber exports and the mountain pine beetle are also factors. Vancouver Island communities that used to depend on the forest industry are now turning to other industries, like aquaculture, for employment and economic spin-off whether people agree with it. If an industry has any impact do we just say let someone else should do it because they need it more than us? If that is the case then there is a long list of industries that fit that bill, not just aquaculture. Unfortunately, if we used your logic in regards to exporting we would have very little employment here and we would all be poorer for it. Should we do that for the beef industry or other industries? How do you think agricultural land is developed and what do think the impacts may be (i.e. water use; trampling of riparian areas; run-off of pesticides and fertilizers; ditching; diking; water channelization)? If we can farm salmon in a sustainable and environmentally responsible way here in BC I do not see why we need to export those jobs and economic benefits somewhere else.