That model's based on sockeye smolt outmigration. Apparently, very few oceanic condition parameters are included in the model. Theres a 65 million fish gap between the upper and lower limits, that gap itself is bigger than any run on record. To say the goalposts are far apart doesn't quite capture it. Given that we don't have a single definitive answer why the 2009 sockeye collapse occurred, and that the Cohen Commission report was largely disregarded, don't celebrate yet, we have no idea what will actually happen. Predictions of sockeye returns are about as reliable as apocalypse predictions.
If there is in fact a huge return, the ensuing harvest will probably intercept many threatened interior summer run, coho stocks etc. Also, because the "Fraser sockeye run" is composed of many different components from different rivers the big harvest could hit an individual run hard. Example, an opening takes 1% of the "Fraser sockeye run", but of that 1% might be made up of, say, 75% of the Bowron River sockeye run because they happened to run when the river was bank-to-bank nets during one of the openings.
On the other hand, if the run is average, but the commercial boats have already invested a tonne of money into what they anticipated to be another 2010, then theres going to be a tonne of pressure to keep the fishery open longer than the data suggests it should be left open...
Also, the Fraser flossing fishery was/is/will be a disaster, more dickheads flossing everywhere all over the LML.
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Topic: 2014 Sockeye Returns could be Bigger then 2010 Run (Read 13980 times)