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[dereke]

If you are concerned and baffled by how the Fraser River fisheries are managed, you're welcome to get involved by joining an existing organization which has a representation at the Lower and Upper Fraser River Sport Fishing Advisory Committees. Getting worked up on speculations and pounding sand in every thread of an online discussion forum is a waste of your and everyone else's time.

I really wish there was a like button Rodney...

[Rantalot]

"The most recent primary water level recorded is 6.655 metres at 2014-07-11 17:10:00 local standard time. The latest water level measurement obtained was 8.356 metres at 2014-06-04 13:45:00. The latest discharge measurement conducted at 2014-06-04 12:56:46 was 8756.83 cubic metres per second with a mean water level of 8.361 metres. This discharge deviates by 1.44% from rating curve 12 which is the active rating curve for the station. Provisional discharges are computed based on the active rating curve with temporary shifts where applicable. If the deviation from the curve is more than 5%, the discharge time series may be inaccurate and will be revised for final publication following detailed review of water level and discharge records"

[rockonfishing]

thanks and yes I did get involved recently, joined the Nicomekl Enhancement Society so I can give back what I took/take out so conservation.  Although I am a junior member I am most likely much older then you and really have rarely joined in any discussion, however recent events brought to our hatcherys' attention is prompting me to get more vocal in attention to assisting with the hatcherys success.
I appreciate your comments though.

[Rodney]

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 15 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

At the meeting today, the run size estimate of 189,000 Early Stuart was unchanged. It is early in the marine migration of Early Summer run sockeye through marine assessment areas and assessments of Early Summer-run sockeye abundance are ongoing.

On July 14, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was approximately 4,919 cms, which is approximately 14% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 14 was 17.8C, which is 2.1C higher than average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures are forecast to increase to 19.3C over the next few days. At the meeting today the Panel adopted an Early Stuart proportional management adjustment of 2.12. Sustained exposure of sockeye to Fraser River water temperatures in this range may slow their migration and cause elevated levels of pre-spawn mortality.

All commercial fisheries in Panel Area waters remain closed to fishing at the present time.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, July 18, 2014.

http://www.psc.org/NewsRel/2014/Announcement04.pdf

[Dave]

Bad news for migrating sockeye if the Fraser hits 20° or higher for even a few days. I'm surprised the panel is not reporting Nechako and Stuart River temperatures which in most years are warmer than the Fraser.
No worries yet for future sockeye harvesters as the fish you will most likely be fishing for, some Chilko but mainly the Shuswap component, are not in the river yet.
If temperatures don't moderate by August though there are going to be some tough calls by fishery managers.

[CohoJake]

Bad news for migrating sockeye if the Fraser hits 20° or higher for even a few days. I'm surprised the panel is not reporting Nechako and Stuart River temperatures which in most years are warmer than the Fraser.
No worries yet for future sockeye harvesters as the fish you will most likely be fishing for, some Chilko but mainly the Shuswap component, are not in the river yet.
If temperatures don't moderate by August though there are going to be some tough calls by fishery managers.

Indeed, if you look back at Rod's update from this time in 2010, you will notice the river was much lower (4,500 cms discharge as opposed to 4,900) but one degree cooler.  I would think that higher water would be cooler because it would mean more snow melt?  Warm water does make it a tough call for fisheries managers - do you allow sport anglers to catch a good portion of those fish that are going to die anyway because of the warm temps?  Of course, this also reminds me that in 2009 one of the theorized factors of the missing sockeye was high water temps.

[Rodney]

FN0635-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 15, 2014

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, July 15, 2014 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.   

The migration of Fraser sockeye through Juan de Fuca Strait has been decreasing
over the past six days as indicated by the declining catches in the Area 20
gillnet test fishery. The Whonnock test fishery showed an increase in catch
over the past week.  Area 12 gillnet fishery began on July 10th, 2014 and catch
levels are relatively low but consistent with expectations for this period. 
Recent stock ID analyses indicate that the proportion of Early Stuart sockeye
in the Juan de Fuca test fisheries is decreasing but most recent samples still
contributing 41% and 46% respectively. In the Area 12 gillnet test fishery
Early Stuart sockeye are present in higher proportions than normally seen. In-
river, Early Stuart continues to be the largest proportion (80%) with Early
Summers making up the majority of the balance with low percentages of Summers
(Harrison) beginning to show in the samples.

The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through July 14th, 2014
is approximately 135,100 fish in total of which 111,000 are estimated to be
Early Stuart sockeye, 14,400 Early Summer run and 9,700 Summer run.

River discharge levels have declined over the past week to a level of about
4,919 cms for July 14, 2014, which is below the historical average discharge on
this day (5,729 cms. Water temperature at Qualark is 17.8 degrees Celsius, 2.1
degrees above average of 15.7 degrees for this date and temperatures are
forecast to rise to over 19 degrees over the next week.

At today's meeting the Fraser River Panel did not change the run size estimate
for Early Stuart sockeye of 189,000, with a mid-point migration date of July
7th, 2014 in Area 20 but did approve an increase in the management adjustment
factor from the pre-season estimate of 0.89 to the new level of 2.12.
Management adjustments are used to determine the additional amount of fish that
are allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for
Fraser River sockeye.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been
limited and directed at chinook salmon. A three week window closure to protect
Early Stuart sockeye remains in place for in-river and marine FSC fisheries.
Limited in-river FSC fisheries targeting chinook are being conducted at this
time.

Based on current assessments, there is no Total Allowable Catch of Early Stuart
sockeye available for directed harvest except for the terminal area where a
modest directed fishery is permitted.  Fishers are requested to check updated
times and restrictions for their local area. There are no planned commercial or
recreational fisheries at this time.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, July
18, 2014.


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478
Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0635
Sent July 16, 2014 at 1338

[DanL]

...At today's meeting the Fraser River Panel did not change the run size estimate
for Early Stuart sockeye of 189,000, with a mid-point migration date of July
7th, 2014 in Area 20 but did approve an increase in the management adjustment
factor from the pre-season estimate of 0.89 to the new level of 2.12.
Management adjustments are used to determine the additional amount of fish that
are allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning escapement targets for
Fraser River sockeye...

Can someone illuminate as to the significance of this management adjustment factor and how it’s calculated and applied?

Obviously it’s important to achieve escapement goals required to sustain the runs, and I’ve been looking at some of the notices from previous years to see what the range of values is, but it’s not so obvious as to what it actually means.

[Dave]

Can someone illuminate as to the significance of this management adjustment factor and how it’s calculated and applied?

Obviously it’s important to achieve escapement goals required to sustain the runs, and I’ve been looking at some of the notices from previous years to see what the range of values is, but it’s not so obvious as to what it actually means.

This is very technical but if you wade through it you will get more information, or just go to the discussion ...

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Library/331503.pdf

[chris gadsden]

One F/N net took 50 on the Saturday opening and another 15, saw pictures of another capture, with a lot of chinook and sockeye too.

[DanL]

This is very technical but if you wade through it you will get more information, or just go to the discussion ...

http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Library/331503.pdf

Thank you this is great info. I havent been able to look at it in much detail yet but I'll definitely aim to make my way through it...

[swimmingwiththefishes]

Great info Dave.
Cheers!

[Rodney]

Friday, July 18, 2014

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 18 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

At the meeting today, the run size estimate of 189,000 Early Stuart sockeye was increased to 240,000 fish. The 50% marine migration timing of Early Stuart sockeye through Area 20 is estimated to be July 9, which is 2 days later than the pre-season forecast of July 7. Assessments of Early Summer-run sockeye abundance are ongoing.

On July 17, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was approximately 4,518 cms, which is approximately 20% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 17 was 18.8C, which is 2.8C higher than average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures are forecast to decrease to 17.9C over the next few days. At the meeting today the Early Stuart proportional management adjustment factor of 2.12 was unchanged. Sustained exposure of sockeye to Fraser River water temperatures in this range may slow their migration and cause elevated levels of pre-spawn mortality.

All commercial fisheries in Panel Area waters remain closed to fishing at the present time.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, July 22, 2014.

http://www.psc.org/NewsRel/2014/Announcement05.pdf

[Dave]

For a bit more information on environmental conditions than the Fraser Panel sends out, check out DFO's Environmental Watch program. 
There is a ton of information on this site and if you dig a bit, check out how many times Dave Patterson's name comes up in the bibliography .... he has to hold the record for publications by still employed DFO scientists.

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/science/habitat/frw-rfo/index-eng.html

[dnibbles]

Can someone illuminate as to the significance of this management adjustment factor and how it’s calculated and applied?

Obviously it’s important to achieve escapement goals required to sustain the runs, and I’ve been looking at some of the notices from previous years to see what the range of values is, but it’s not so obvious as to what it actually means.

This is the calculation.

Total Allowable Catch (TAC) = Total Run Size - Spawning Escapement Target (SET).

This is calculated for each run timing group (Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer, Late).

The Management Adjustment is applied to the SET to allow for extra spawners to get upriver to reach the spawning grounds. A higher pMA means a higher expected rate of En Route Mortality (ERM). So, if the SET for Early Stuart is 150,000 (a made up number, I don't know what it actually is), then with a pMA of 2.12 you multiply 150K*2.12= ~318K, add that to the existing SET, and you have a new SET of 150K + 318K = 468K. This is how many sockeye need to be allowed up river to get 150K on the grounds.

So, if the run size is 240K, and the SET is 468K, there is ZERO TAC on the Early Stuarts.

Once again, i made up the SET number. It isn't reported in the public Panel releases, so you can't actually do the calculation unless you have access to the actual calls, and I'm not going to post the SET here if the Panel isn't reporting it. Long story short, higher pMA, higher the number of fish that need to be let upriver, less TAC.