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[Dave]

Included in the Panel report was the fact 5 Cultus Lake sockeye were counted through the DFO fence on Sweltzer Creek, July 28, the day after the fence was fish tight ..

Hello ... put the fence in July 15 

[Rodney]

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, August 12 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

At the meeting today, the Fraser River Panel adopted a run-size of 1,800,000 Early Summer-run sockeye with a 50% marine migration timing through Area 20 of August 8. Summer-run sockeye are currently tracking near the median (p50) pre-season forecast level of 5,699,000 fish. Assessments of Summer-run sockeye abundance are ongoing. Test fishing catches in Johnstone Strait continue to indicate approximately 90% of the Fraser sockeye are currently passing through Johnstone Strait.

On August 11, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was approximately 3,037 cms, which is approximately 22% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on August 11 was 19.5C, which is 1.5C higher than average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures at Qualark Creek are forecast to be approximately 19.5C by August 17. Sustained water temperatures in this range can cause severe stress to migrating sockeye and may lead to significant en route mortality. Migration conditions for Fraser sockeye will be monitored closely and appropriate management actions will be taken.

CANADIAN FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

Area 18-1, 18-4, and 18-11 and Area 29-1 to 6: As previously announced, open to Area H troll ITQ fishery from 12:01 a.m. Wednesday August 6, 2014 until further notice. (Please refer to DFO Fishery Notices for further details).

UNITED STATES FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

TREATY INDIAN FISHERY:

Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: As previously announced, open for drift gillnets 12:00 p.m. (noon), Saturday,

August 9, 2014, to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Wednesday, August 13, 2014.

Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: Extended for drift gillnets 12:00 p.m. (noon), Wednesday, August 13, 2014, to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Saturday, August 16, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open for net fishing from 5:00 a.m. Sunday, August 10, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Tuesday, August 12, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: Open for net fishing from 5:00 a.m. Wednesday, August 13, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Thursday, August 14, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: Open for net fishing from 5:00 a.m. Friday, August 15, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Saturday, August 16, 2014.

ALL CITIZEN FISHERY:

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to purse seines from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Tuesday, August 12, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to purse seines from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Thursday, August 14, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to gillnets from 8:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. (midnight) Tuesday, August 12, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to gillnets from 8:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. (midnight) Thursday, August 14, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to reefnets from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Monday, August 11, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to reefnets from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Wednesday, August 13,
2014.

(Note: U. S. Non-Treaty fishers should check the U.S. hotline and WDFW regulations before fishing as there are additional State of Washington regulations, including time restrictions that may be in effect).

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, August 15, 2014.

http://www.psc.org/NewsRel/2014/Announcement12.pdf

[Rodney]

http://www-ops2.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=162429&ID=all

The Fraser River Panel met on Tuesday, August 12, 2014 to receive an update on
the migration of the Fraser sockeye runs and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.   

The migration of sockeye through marine and lower Fraser River assessment areas
and past the Mission hydroacoustic site has increased over the past week.
Catches in the Area 12 and 13 seine test fisheries have remained above average
for this period, while Area 20 seine and gillnet test fisheries continue to be
lower than average and lower than expected. In river test fisheries have been
variable in recent days.

Recent stock identification analyses from the Area 12 purse seine test fishery
indicated Fraser sockeye contributions of approximately 10% Early Summer-run,
60% Summer-run sockeye, and 31% Late-run. In the Fraser River, the proportions
of each stock in the most recent samples are 43% Early Summers, 56% Summers and
1% Late Run.

The estimated upriver migration of sockeye past Mission through August 7th is
1,491,200 fish in total of which 227,900 are estimated to be Early Stuart
sockeye, 532,300 Early Summer run, 668,400 Summer run and 62,600 Late Run.

River discharge levels have decreased over the past week to a level of 3,037
cms on August 11th, which is 22 percent below the historical average discharge
for this date (3,899 cms).  Water temperature at Qualark is 19.5 degrees
Celsius, which is 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average temperature for this
date.  Water temperatures are forecast to decrease in the coming days and
discharge levels are expected to remain below average.

At today's meeting, the Fraser River Panel adopted an in-season run size
estimate for Early Summer sockeye of 1.8 million.  This abundance is within the
pre-season forecast range from 730,000 to 16.8 million but less than the median
forecast of 4.126 million.  The Panel also adopted an in-season 50% timing date
for Early Summers of August 8th which is consistent with the pre-season
estimate of run timing for this group.  The Panel made no change to the
management adjustment for Early Summers which remains at 0.42.  Fish condition
has been good to date in the Fraser River fisheries. Management adjustments are
additional fish that are allowed to escape upstream to help achieve spawning
escapement targets for Fraser River sockeye.

First Nations FSC fisheries targeting Fraser sockeye are ongoing or being
planned.  Fishers are requested to check updated times and restrictions for
their local area.

Area B seine and Area H troll commercial sockeye ITQ fisheries remain open
until further notice subject to available quota. Increases to the individual
vessel quota (ITQ) Area B and Area H will be announced in separate fishery
notices.

An Area D gillnet fishery is planned to begin Wednesday, August 13. Decisions
on fisheries for Area E gillnet and Area G troll will be provided following the
next Fraser Panel Meeting on Friday August 15. 

First Nation economic opportunity fisheries in the Lower Fraser River are under
consideration with fisheries possible this week.
 
Retention of sockeye in Marine and Lower Fraser River recreational fisheries
continue.  Refer to fishery notices FN0720 and FN0721 for details.

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, August
15, 2014.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0793
Sent August 12, 2014 at 1506

[mikeyman]

So the run isn't going to hit 70 million eh. I am not sure but will the bulk of the run be summers? Or late run?

[DragonSpeed]

I love this line from that last update:

This abundance is within the pre-season forecast range from 730,000 to 16.8 million

I work for a testing laboratory... I wish our clients would let US get away with that kind of allowable deviation in our numbers 

[Stratocaster]

I love this line from that last update:
I work for a testing laboratory... I wish our clients would let US get away with that kind of allowable deviation in our numbers 

I'm thinking that's a typo.  Don't think the early summers would ever get up to 16 million or even close to that.

[Humpy]

I'm thinking that's a typo.  Don't think the early summers would ever get up to 16 million or even close to that.

How do you think they came up with the number 75 million then? 

[Easywater]

So the run isn't going to hit 70 million eh. I am not sure but will the bulk of the run be summers? Or late run?

The majority of the run is the late run which haven't even entered the Strait of Georgia yet - still north of Port Hardy.

commonsensecanadian.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/DFO-2014-sockeye-forecast.pdf#36

Not sure if the above linked properly - go to page 36.

This table shows the number of fish based on 50% probability - this total is about 23 million.

[kevzabob]

So when is the majority of the sockeye run scheduled to hit the Fraser river?

[firstlight]

So when is the majority of the sockeye run scheduled to hit the Fraser river?

August 27 th at 11:43 am.

[Easywater]

So when is the majority of the sockeye run scheduled to hit the Fraser river?

Refer to the 2002 (date above) graph here: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Library/331503.pdf#page=58

Looks like Sept 15.

[obie1fish]

Thanks for the link, easywater. While we can be frustrated by variances and disparities, this is a good document to demonstrate the work that goes into coming up with the numbers. Makes me appreciate the number of variables, both known and unknown, that affect the little part of the world known as the Fraser River sockeye runs.

More bluntly said: the people who come up with the forecast put a lot more into their numbers than some of us give credit.

[Rodney]

Friday, August 15, 2014

The Fraser River Panel met Friday, August 15 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

At the meeting today, the Fraser River Panel adopted a run-size of 233,500 Early Stuart sockeye with a 50% marine migration timing through Area 20 of July 9. The run-size of 1,800,000 Early Summer-run sockeye was unchanged at the meeting today. Summer-run sockeye are currently tracking near the median (p50) pre-season forecast level of 5,699,000 fish. Assessments of Summer-run sockeye abundance are ongoing. Test fishing catches indicate 98% of the Fraser sockeye are currently passing through Johnstone Strait.

On August 14, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was approximately 2,781 cms, which is approximately 25% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on August 14 was 19.7C, which is 1.9C higher than average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures at Qualark Creek are forecast to be approximately 20.4C by August 20. Sustained water temperatures in this range can cause severe stress to migrating sockeye and may lead to significant en route mortality. Migration conditions for Fraser sockeye will be monitored closely and appropriate management actions will be taken.

The Panel announced the following regulations for Panel Area waters:

CANADIAN FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

Area 18-1, 18-4, and 18-11 and Area 29-1 to 6: As previously announced, open to Area H troll ITQ fishery from 12:01 a.m. Wednesday August 6, 2014 until further notice. (Please refer to DFO Fishery Notices for further details).

Area 29: Portions of 29- 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 and 11 to 17: Open to Area E gillnets from 12:00 p.m. (noon) to 6:00 p.m., Tuesday, August 19, 2014. (Please refer to DFO Fishery Notices for further details).

Canada announced the following regulations for Panel Area waters:

Areas 123 and 124: Open to Area G troll ITQ fishery from 12:01 a.m. Sunday, August 17 to 23:59 p.m. Monday, August 18, 2014.

UNITED STATES FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

TREATY INDIAN FISHERY:

Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: As previously announced, open for drift gillnets 12:00 p.m. (noon), Wednesday, August 13, 2014, to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Saturday, August 16, 2014.

Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: Extended for drift gillnets 12:00 p.m. (noon), Saturday, August 16, 2014, to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Wednesday, August 20, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open for net fishing from 5:00 a.m. Friday, August 15, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Saturday, August 16, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: Extended for net fishing from 9:00 a.m. Saturday, August 16, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Monday, August 18, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: Open for net fishing from 5:00 a.m. Tuesday, August 19, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Wednesday, August 20, 2014.

ALL CITIZEN FISHERY:

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to purse seines from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Thursday, August 14, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to purse seines from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Monday, August 18, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to gillnets from 8:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. (midnight) Thursday, August 14, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to gillnets from 8:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. (midnight) Monday, August 18, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to reefnets from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Wednesday, August 13, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to reefnets from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Monday, August 18, 2014.

(Note: U. S. Non-Treaty fishers should check the U.S. hotline and WDFW regulations before fishing as there are additional State of Washington regulations, including time restrictions that may be in effect).

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, August 19, 2014.

http://www.psc.org/NewsRel/2014/Announcement13.pdf

[Rodney]

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

The Fraser River Panel met Tuesday, August 19 to receive an update on the migration of Fraser sockeye and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

At the meeting today, the Fraser River Panel adopted a run-size of 2,200,000 Early Summer-run sockeye with a 50% marine migration timing through Area 20 of August 10. At the meeting today, the Fraser River Panel adopted a run-size of 6,300,000 Summer-run sockeye with a 50% marine migration timing through Area 20 of August 15. Assessments of Late-run sockeye abundance are ongoing. Recent test fishing catches indicate 99% of the Fraser sockeye are currently passing through Johnstone Strait.

On August 18, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was approximately 2,842 cms, which is approximately 17% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on August 18 was 20.7C, which is 3.1C higher than average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures at Qualark Creek are forecast to decrease to approximately 18.9C by August 20. Sustained high water temperatures can cause severe stress to migrating sockeye and may lead to significant en route mortality. Migration conditions for Fraser sockeye will be monitored closely and appropriate management actions will be taken.

The Panel announced the following regulations for Panel Area waters:

CANADIAN FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

Area 18-1, 18-4, and 18-11 and Area 29-1 to 6: As previously announced, open to Area H troll ITQ fishery from 12:01 a.m. Wednesday August 6, 2014 until further notice. (Please refer to DFO Fishery Notices for further details).

Area 29: Portions of 29- 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 and 11 to 17: As previously announced, open to Area E gillnets from 11:00 p.m. (noon) to 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, August 19, 2014. (Please refer to DFO Fishery Notices for further details).

Area 29: Portions of 29- 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 and 11 to 17: Extended to Area E gillnets from 5:00 p.m. Tuesday, August 19, 2014 to 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, August 19, 2014. (Please refer to DFO Fishery Notices for further details).

UNITED STATES FRASER RIVER PANEL AREA WATERS:

TREATY INDIAN FISHERY:

Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: As previously announced, open for drift gillnets 12:00 p.m. (noon), Saturday, August 16, 2014, to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Wednesday, August 20, 2014.

Areas 4B, 5 and 6C: Extended for drift gillnets 12:00 p.m. (noon), Wednesday, August 20, 2014, to 12:00 p.m. (noon) Saturday, August 23, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open net fishing from 5:00 a.m. Tuesday, August 19, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Wednesday, August 20, 2014.

Areas 6, 7 and 7A: Extended for net fishing from 9:00 a.m. Wednesday, August 20, 2014 through 9:00 a.m. Thursday, August 21, 2014.

ALL CITIZEN FISHERY:

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to purse seines from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Monday, August 18, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to purse seines from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Thursday, August 21, 2014 and Friday, August 22, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to gillnets from 8:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. (midnight) Monday, August 18, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to gillnets from 8:00 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. (midnight) Thursday, August 21, 2014 and Friday, August 22, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: As previously announced, open to reefnets from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Monday, August 18, 2014.

Area 7 and 7A: Open to reefnets from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. Wednesday, August 20, 2014, Thursday, August 21, 2014 and Friday, August 22, 2014.

(Note: U. S. Non-Treaty fishers should check the U.S. hotline and WDFW regulations before fishing as there are additional State of Washington regulations, including time restrictions that may be in effect).

The next in-season meeting of the Panel is scheduled to occur on Friday, August 22, 2014.

http://www.psc.org/NewsRel/2014/Announcement14.pdf

[tburns]

August 27 th at 11:43 am.

haha good for a solid laugh at work