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[Novabonker]

Lots of speculation - very little evidence. Very common theme from this "top blogger".

And oddly enough, I spent the weekend at a rugby tournament with a geologist that works in the mining industry. A very well respected and knowledgeable gent, he says, speaking from well over 25 years in the exploration and mining with methods very similar to Mount Polley - it's a freaking utter disaster. The outlook, from his experience, is quite bleak for that area's fish and wildlife. And I'll take his word over an armchair scientist speaking through his hat any day.

[Novabonker]

And here's kindly Uncle Murray, who puts our best interests to the forefront......


http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/18/canadas-top-oil-entrepreneur-joins-wayne-gretzky-brian-mulroney-and-prem-watsa-as-winner-of-prestigious-international-award/?__lsa=54a7-2b9b

[shuswapsteve]

As I was saying.....lots of speculation - very little evidence.

I don't think even your friend has a crystal ball either.  This armchair scientist is referring to results of sampling to date analyzed by professionals who deal with this. I am hoping for the best, but realize, despite the favourable results so far for drinking water and aquatic life, that much more work is required. I am not saying this is not a bad thing, but there has been quite a bit of eco-babble (as Carl Walters describes it) being spread by individuals with little or no experience with this which doesn't help matters.

For instance, Gord Sterritt of the Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance went on record to the media as saying that "this could alter their (Sockeye Salmon) senses, put them in a bit of disarray and stress them out," and "they wouldn't be able to mate and get back to their spawning grounds."  Well, first off, Gord Sterritt is not a fisheries biologist, yet the media turns to him for his opinion on this instead of consulting an actual fisheries biologist who would know something about this.  It seems like the media gets lazy in actually getting the right people to interview for this type of insight.  They would rather default to the sensationalized story instead of getting the facts correct.  Second, Gord Steritt doesn't know what he is talking about because it's organics compounds that migrating salmon smell - not metals. Then you have Alexandra Morton who puts out a map of salmon migration and direction of flow in Quesnel Lake, but shows that she has no idea about spawning habitat in the lake and adjacent tributaries.

This accident only happened 2 weeks ago, so I think it's premature to create prophecies of doom and gloom - especially when long term monitoring is going to be required. Right now I don't believe it is really known if those metals will necessarily be in a form that will impact fish and wildlife.  I believe that pH of the lake has much to do with that (Dion would know more about that). Should the BC government cuts and regulatory actions prior to this accident receive scrutiny?  Absolutely, but those government employees on the ground dealing with this shouldn't be vilified by the public over this.

I believe some are getting too carried away and they provide little or no evidence to back up those claims. So, if this is speaking out of my hat then I am guilty as charged.

[Novabonker]

Dp a google and then tell me the same thing - tailings pond breaches rarely , if ever turn out well.

[skaha]

--I agree that the primary Olfactory triggers appear to be organic compounds.
--Fancy explanation of smell memory that fish use in part to navigate to their natal stream.

--It has been shown in the lab that Sub lethal exposure to heavy metals, pesticides or insecticides may affect the olfactory processing.

--Thus if there is something in the water that effects the "nose" of the fish  there could be some disruption in the processing portion of the brain.

--It would however seem more probable that there could be some longer term effects on juvenile fish in the river below the spill site (if undesirable chemicals or heavy metals persist)... again due to effect on the nose of the fish. 

[shuswapsteve]

Dp a google and then tell me the same thing - tailings pond breaches rarely , if ever turn out well.

How many have involved a deep fjord lake like Quesnel? How does the water chemistry of a deep fjord lake Quesnel compare to those other places?  The only things we know for sure are the results on water sampling to date.

[shuswapsteve]

--I agree that the primary Olfactory triggers appear to be organic compounds.
--Fancy explanation of smell memory that fish use in part to navigate to their natal stream.

--It has been shown in the lab that Sub lethal exposure to heavy metals, pesticides or insecticides may affect the olfactory processing.

--Thus if there is something in the water that effects the "nose" of the fish  there could be some disruption in the processing portion of the brain.

--It would however seem more probable that there could be some longer term effects on juvenile fish in the river below the spill site (if undesirable chemicals or heavy metals persist)... again due to effect on the nose of the fish.

My initial thought is that it would depend on the pH of the water.  Metals become more soluble and can be more toxic at lower pH.  Quesnel Lake samples showed a pH of 7.6 (pHs less than 7 are acidic and pHs greater than 7 are alkaline). The pH of Quesnel lake ranges between 7.3 and 7.6 based on previous inventories (BC government online database). Not saying that all is good, but in my opinion I believe the pH of the lake will play some role in this.

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Maybe the oily film on Quesnel Lake discovered by Alexandra Morton will impact the olfactory sense of migrating salmon?  Of course it has to be from the tailings pond breach near Polley Lake. When in doubt it is best blog about it, call it a mystery and passively imply damage from the breach before testing.  What else would create a rainbow-looking, oily film on the surface of a lake with hundreds of boaters each year including private cabins (with septic systems) and a few resorts?  It seems similar to the other mystery films I have noticed on Shuswap Lake and Mara Lake, but perhaps she has made a new discovery.  Hmmm...how did Alexandra Morton get around Quesnel Lake anyway? By canoe? Back-stroke? Or for some of her followers - walking on water? I think it was a boat that was fueled by hydrocarbons. Come to think of it while she is on her crusade, hot on the trail or those European salmon farm viruses, I believe she uses a boat on the ocean that runs on hydrocarbons.

[skaha]

"My initial thought is that it would depend on the pH of the water.  Metals become more soluble and can be more toxic at lower pH.  Quesnel Lake samples showed a pH of 7.6 (pHs less than 7 are acidic and pHs greater than 7 are alkaline). The pH of Quesnel lake ranges between 7.3 and 7.6 based on previous inventories (BC government online database). Not saying that all is good, but in my opinion I believe the pH of the lake will play some role in this."

--I also believe this to be the case..only thing I could find indicated the effect of toxins on olfactory system by Scholz et al 2000 indicated significant  effects at 10 degrees C and PH 7.2 on Coho
--Also Moore 1994.. exposure to water less than 6.0 PH linked to impaired olfactory processing.

--PH of Quesnel lake hopefully as you say may reduce or even negate significant influence.

-- This is why we need more little guys/gals in lab coats doing research. They don't get much glory and for the most part it is very difficult to get long term funding required for these projects. Often these projects are one of's with small populations thus are difficult to get statistical significance ... so the answer is usually tends to indicate rather than we know for sure.

[skaha]

--I see Dr. Walters has changed his tune somewhat... from being Confident there will be no appreciable effect on the current sockeye run to crossing his fingers there will be no effect.
--Weather (not in our control that I am aware of) may (not will...may) cause mixing of some of the now thermal layered toxins.
--In many instances (myself included) we just have to wait and see what actually happens now and in the longer term.

--We need to keep pressure on to continue with monitoring and exploring potential issues that may be within our control as well as pursue informed speculation on what may occur.

[shuswapsteve]

--I see Dr. Walters has changed his tune somewhat... from being Confident there will be no appreciable effect on the current sockeye run to crossing his fingers there will be no effect.
--Weather (not in our control that I am aware of) may (not will...may) cause mixing of some of the now thermal layered toxins.
--In many instances (myself included) we just have to wait and see what actually happens now and in the longer term.

--We need to keep pressure on to continue with monitoring and exploring potential issues that may be within our control as well as pursue informed speculation on what may occur.

Well, the positive thing is that Sockeye are showing up in the area like the Horsefly River. I believe the water quality results to date are reliable, but there are growing concerns for the potential long term impacts to juvenile salmonid rearing in the lake and how these contaminants will impact the food chain.  The public, especially those residents that live on the lake, are understandably concerned and want timely answers and cures (this is what Alexandra Morton is preaching now), but things like this are not going to be investigated in a few days and with instant solutions. We are talking about a very long term project involving multi governmental agencies, university academia, First Nations, private consultants, and mine company personnel.

The potential long term impacts that are being discussed by many now are not going to be determined in a few days; instead we should be looking at years. We can't be just concerned with this brood year, but subsequent brood years that follow so how are we going to have answers in a few days?  Its not just Sockeye, but also Chinook, Coho, Pink and non-anadromous species. Even the wildlife that feed on them. Morton should go back to sampling Sockeye that have lamprey wounds.  What can be done in a shorter time frame is have a very comprehensive, independent review of this incident which explores not only the event that happened, but all the factors that potentially contributed to it so we do not revisit this again somewhere else in BC. This is where immediate pressure should be focused on.

[shuswapsteve]

The blue sheen found in areas of Quesnel Lake was recently sampled by Ministry of Environment staff with the results analyzed by professionals who deal with water quality.  Somehow this was not good enough for Ms. Morton (no education or formal training in water quality analysis) who is eager to have her own samples of the sheen sampled by an independent lab.  Somehow ALS is not independent enough.

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/eemp/incidents/2014/pdf/aug22/Memo-Blue-Sheen-on-Quesnel-Lk-Water-Quality-Aug12.pdf

Oh...Alex forgot to mention the raw lab results that were made public....

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/eemp/incidents/2014/pdf/aug12/L1503975_COA.pdf

[Novabonker]

The blue sheen found in areas of Quesnel Lake was recently sampled by Ministry of Environment staff with the results analyzed by professionals who deal with water quality.  Somehow this was not good enough for Ms. Morton (no education or formal training in water quality analysis) who is eager to have her own samples of the sheen sampled by an independent lab.  Somehow ALS is not independent enough.

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/eemp/incidents/2014/pdf/aug22/Memo-Blue-Sheen-on-Quesnel-Lk-Water-Quality-Aug12.pdf

Oh...Alex forgot to mention the raw lab results that were made public....

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/eemp/incidents/2014/pdf/aug12/L1503975_COA.pdf

Sure Steve - the blue sheen is just a trick of the early fall sunlight......The positive thing???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiJ9fy1qSFI

[salmonrook]

Wow ,
 Here we are again folks government funded opinions on how this disaster is "not so bad"

[shuswapsteve]

Well, skeptics can feel free to take their own samples from the lake and choose what lab they want to analyze them if they do not trust the results to date. Fund their own opinions basically if they don't like what they are getting from government.  Other than the excluded zone designated by the Interior Health Authority the lake is free for people like Morton to take as many water samples as they want.  All the water quality results to date (including the raw sample data and sampling sites) have been made available for the public online:

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/eemp/incidents/2014/mount-polley/

In addition, results are shared with local First Nations, the First Nations Health Authority (FNHA), Interior Health and the Cariboo Regional District. The FNHA has been actively involved in this process with both water and fish:

http://www.fnha.ca/about/news-and-events/news/mount-polley-mine-communiques-and-press-releases

Those results are being shared with government agencies and Interior Health. The FNHA is working with an independent professional risk assessor to help First Nations with interpreting this data and share results to other groups.

In regards to this blue sheen, the ministry came to the best conclusion at the time based on observations and lab results; however, they didn't say that no more samples of this nature would be taken. Sample kits have been provided to First Nations and UNBC Research Centre staff.  UNBC is going to be actively involved in research to help understand the impacts (immediate and long term):

http://www.unbc.ca/quesnel-river-research-centre

On the other hand, Morton has collected water samples in the area including similar samples of this blue sheen around the same time, but we haven't seen the results (including the raw data) or even the locations on the lake where sampling occurred. This is in stark contrast to disclosure the ministry and the First Nations Health Authority has displayed by posting this information online for the public. Despite this lack of disclosure (and the obvious lack of education and experience with water quality), Morton continues to make claims of this blue sheen being the result of the breach which to date is not backed up by any evidence. Sound familiar? If she has found something different about this sheen then she should share the results (including the raw data) and stop speculating.

[Fisherbob]

It looks like we have found out what Doc Morton is good at,,,,"speculating". I do enjoy reading all your posts Steve. You have made me think outside of the box many times since I joined FWR.