http://www-ops2.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=173081&ID=allThe Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 10, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of Fraser River sockeye
and pink salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel. The
majority of sockeye returning in 2015 will be recruits from adult spawners in
2010 and 2011. As 2010 was one of the largest returns and spawning escapement
on record, a larger proportion of 5 year old fish is expected this year than
usual. Fraser pink salmon will be returning from the 2013 adult spawners.
Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon forecasts for 2015 are considered highly
uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about
changes in their productivity.
To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
3,824,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
12,635,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a
higher or lower return) of 6,778,000 fish for all management groups except
Early Stuart for which the 25% probability level was used due to the
expectations for overall low abundance and the prediction of a very large
return of 5 year old fish in the forecast.
The pre-season forecast for the 2015 return of Fraser pink salmon that was used
for pre-season planning was the 50% probability forecast of 14,455,000 fish. To
put this into context there is a one in four chance that the actual return of
pink salmon will be less than 10,385,000 fish (the 25% probability level
forecast)and a one in four chance the return will be larger than 20,450,000
fish (the 75% probability level forecast). Fishing decisions for both sockeye
and pink salmon will be based on in-season data.
For 2015 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart forecast timing analysis
of July 8 was adopted by the Panel while the historical timing for Chilko of
August 9 was adopted. Timing for all other sockeye stocks was based on
historical correlations with the Early Stuart and Chilko timings mentioned
above. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye salmon
diverting their migration to the Fraser River through Johnstone Strait is 96%.
For modelling purposes the Panel chose to use a diversion rate of 80% through
Johnstone Strait which is roughly the mid-point between the recent year average
of 62% and the above forecast.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was near average in April of
this year, however a warmer than normal spring resulted in early and greater
snowmelt throughout the Fraser watershed resulting in the lowest June snowpack
on record. Water levels are forecast to be at or below historic minimum levels
during the sockeye migration period. This combined with above average forecast
for air temperatures has resulted in higher than typical water temperatures
forecasted for the summer months. The combination of very low flows and high
water temperatures are expected to create migration issues for Fraser sockeye
in 2015. As a result, the Fraser Panel has adopted management adjustments for
Early Stuart and Early Summer sockeye that reflect these conditions. The
current river temperature at Qualark is 3.6C higher than average. Discharge is
30% below average. In-season information over the coming weeks will help to
inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Stuart, Early
Summer and Summer management groups. Management adjustments are additional fish
that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream
in an attempt to assist in achievement if identified escapement objectives for
the different run timing groups.
Gill net test fishing began on June 22nd in Area 29 (Fraser River at Whonnock)
and on June 29th at Qualark Creek. Very few sockeye have been caught to date
with no stock identification analyses done at this time. In-season assessment
of Early Stuart sockeye will be provided later in July once more information
becomes available. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally
occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine
areas.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries in marine waters
are non-retention of sockeye. Within the waters of the Fraser River, First
Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have been very limited and
directed at chinook. The initiation of sockeye directed First Nations food,
social and ceremonial fisheries is not anticipated before late July or early
August depending upon location.
Fishers are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in
their local area. There are no planned commercial or recreational fisheries on
sockeye at this time.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Friday, July 18, 2015.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Jennifer Nener 604-666-6478
Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0662
Sent July 13, 2015 at 1100
Author
Topic: 2015 Fraser River Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates (Read 63042 times)