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[RalphH]

The PSC estimates the 50% point of migration for the marine approaches. This year PSC identified Aug 19th for Area 20. In 2015 it was Aug 22nd. The historic median is Aug 29th. I don't know what all that means. I don't think any of it changes the outlook for less than 4 million fish.
 

To piggy back on this thought, Just out of curiosity I looked at previous Whonnock test fishery results to try and guesstimate when the mid-way point of previous runs were by adding up the total season's catch from previous runs and determining on what date the 50% percentile fish was counted. The data is somewhat flawed as it runs from mid-August to late September so early arrivers and stragglers are not counted, however making the huge assumption that ‘most’ of the runs are accounted for, we get the following dates for the midway points:

2007 7-Sep
2009 8-Sep
2011 13-Sep
2013 12-Sep
2015 4 Sep

The ‘average date’ if that term is even valid here, would be somewhere around Sept-9 so the latest hydroacoustic numbers from Sept-7 are quite possibly right around or just prior to the midway point.

Looking at it another way, by Sept-7 the previous 5 runs had seen an average of 43% of the total test fishery catch (though there is a high of 65% in 2015 to a low of 20% in 2011), so very roughly guessing that the latest hydroacoustic numbers account for ~40-50% of this year’s run would put it at ~3.6M - 4.5M.

If the hydroacoustic method is at all accurate then the DFO estimate may actually not be all that far off when all is said and done.

Hydroacoustic counting is relatively newer but unfortunately I cant find any data for previous years so I have nothing to compare with. 2015 hydroacoustic  numbers would be very interesting as the test fishery was significantly lower than this years…

I’ll make the compiled data available to anyone who wants to play around with it themselves.

[Damien]

Yeah, the numbers are super low.  Just after the announcement to close it to the sportfishers, the DFO gives purse seine opening on on the Fraser!!!??!?!?

http://notices.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=200734&ID=all

THIS IS MADNESS!!!!!!!

[Easywater]

Yeah, the numbers are super low.  Just after the announcement to close it to the sportfishers, the DFO gives purse seine opening on on the Fraser!!!??!?!?

http://notices.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=200734&ID=all

THIS IS MADNESS!!!!!!!

You linked to closure notice for pinks in salt.
Don't see any commercial opening except in the Charlottes (Haida Gwaii).

[Damien]

My bad, grabbed the wrong notice.  Something wonky in my browser.

[Knnn]

WOW.  Rod obviously monitors this forum fairly often considering the speed at which all those posts got deleted.

As to why they got deleted.....hmmmm.

[RalphH]

My bad, grabbed the wrong notice.  Something wonky in my browser.

the Musquem Band has a purse seine opening below Port Mann, Sept 11 and 12th

[Rieber]

You know.... that could be a possibility.
Honestly, at the time it never even entered my mind.

I was only standing about 20-30 yards away... However, I stand corrected and will say they: Could have been Coho's.

I guess without actually confirming, the benefit of the doubt should go to the Fishermen.
CASE DISMISSED!

lol

The initial gut reaction is usually the correct one. If you were that close you would most likely tell the difference the way the fish fought. I don't judge anymore unless I'm there to see it in person. I can't say that I'm always right because I thought I was making a mistake one day and then realized I was wrong about that.

I really like your statement," benefit of the doubt should go to the Fishermen." Wise words which also apply to our kids.

[htdub]

Last sliver of the Fraser 29-9 now closed to pinks

http://notices.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=200734&ID=all

[Rodney]