Category(s): ABORIGINAL - General Information
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Subject: FN0697-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 21, 2017
The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 21 to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye and pink runs to date and review the status of
migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Gill net test fishing catches continue to be very poor in both the marine and
in-river testing areas. Stock identification information continues to show a
higher than expected proportions of Early Stuart sockeye largely due to the
lower numbers of Early Summer and Summer run stocks showing to date. No late
run stocks have been observed at this time.
Sample sizes from both in-river and marine test fisheries have remained low
which results in a higher level of uncertainty in stock composition estimates.
Hell's Gate observations have continued to decline. During today's Panel call
the start-up of the Purse seine test fisheries in Areas 12 and 20 was confirmed
for July 24 and 25 respectively. In addition, Reef net test fishery
observations will be conducted for the next 3 days to determine if Fraser
sockeye are present in US waters. The diversion rate through Johnstone Strait
is currently estimated to be 16% which is well below the pre-season predicted
rate of 51% for the entire season.
DNA analysis of samples taken in the marine test fisheries show sockeye stock
compositions in Area 20 of approximately 21% Early Stuart, 52% Early Summers
and 26% Summer run stocks. During the call today, the Fraser Panel made no
changes to the recently reduced Early Stuart run size of 50,000 with an Area 20
peak run timing of July 3. The estimated escapement past Mission of Early
Stuart sockeye as of July 20 is 40,000 fish.
Early Summer run stocks are also tracking well below the p25 forecast of
166,000 but it is too early to tell if the returns are as weak as they appear
or just later than expected. Although there was no formal change to the run
size today at the p25 run size there is no TAC available and as such no sockeye
directed fisheries are being considered at this time. It is anticipated that a
formal run size will be adopted at the next Panel meeting on Tuesday, July 25.
In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after
identification of their peak migration through marine areas. Early Summer run
stocks are starting to build in marine and in-river test fishery samples. Run-
size estimates of Early Summer returns should be available in late July after
their expected peak migration through marine areas. The estimated escapement
of Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye past Mission through July 20th is
only 15,400 and 3,200 respectively.
On July 20, the Fraser River water discharge at Hope was 3,784 m3/s, which is
approximately 24% lower than average for this date. The temperature of the
Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 20 was 17.3°C, which is 0.4°C higher than
average for this date and is forecast to increase to 18.4°C by July 26. Due to
the very low discharge levels water temperatures are impacted more by the air
temperatures they are exposed to.
For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments for Early Summer, Summer and Late run sockeye that reflect the
forecast water temperature and discharge conditions based on the May and June
information for Early Summer and Summers and anticipated river entry dates for
Late run fish. Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from
identified harvest levels and allowed to migrate upstream in an attempt to
assist in achievement of identified spawner objectives for the different run
timing groups. In-season information in the coming weeks will help to inform
future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer and Summer
management groups while the Early Stuart and Late run management groups will be
managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER) for each
group (10% for Early Stuart and 20% for Lates). There will be no in-season
estimates of management adjustment for Early Stuart in 2017 as the forecast
returns are very low across most of the forecast range and it is anticipated
they will be managed to the LAER, with the expected outcome of a spawning
escapement well below target.
First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries have been
restricted by the 4 week window closure protecting Early Stuart and the
earliest timed Early Summer run stocks with limited fishing opportunities to
date directed at chinook salmon. Due to the appearance of lateness and/or
weakness in the returns of Early Summer and Summer run stocks, the start-up of
sockeye directed FSC fisheries will continue to be delayed until the
identification of TAC for Early Summer and/or Summer run sockeye.
FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.
Given the low returns to date there are no fisheries directed upon Fraser River
sockeye scheduled at this time, and updates will continue to be provided
following meetings of the Fraser River Panel on Tuesdays and Fridays of each
week.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Tuesday, July 25, 2017.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Jennifer Nener 604-666-0789