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Author Topic: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates  (Read 19040 times)

Rodney

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2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« on: May 24, 2018, 02:15:49 PM »

http://www-ops2.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=208099&ID=all

FN0404-Fraser River Spring 5(2) and Summer 5(2) Chinook - Abundance Update - May 23, 2018

This notice provides information on the current in-season abundance of Fraser River Spring 5-2 and Summer 5-2 Chinook. 

The model used to predict the return of Fraser River Spring 5-2 and Summer 5-2 Chinook uses data from the standard Chinook net fished by the Albion Test fishery and does not incorporate catch from the multi-panel net (which is currently fished on alternate days).  The standard Chinook net is an 8 inch (approx. 20 cm) mesh.  Catch and effort data are cumulated by week, starting the first full week in May, to provide the input to the model.

In 2018, the Albion Chinook test fishery began operating on April 22.  The total catch for the period of this update (May 6 to May 19) was one (1) Chinook.  Based on this input, the current predicted return to the mouth of the Fraser for the Fraser River Spring 5-2 and Summer 5-2 Chinook aggregates ranges from 21,000 to 54,000 Chinook (median value of 33,850). 

The next scheduled update is on May 29 and the final in-season update is planned for June 18.

Given conservation concerns for Fraser River Chinook, the Department does not plan to adjust management actions for Fraser River Spring and Summer 5-2 Chinook fisheries in-season and additional conservation actions are planned to achieve the Department's conservation objective to reduce exploitation by 25%-35% on Fraser Chinook stocks for the 2018 season.  Further information on additional management actions will be communicated by separate fishery notices. 


FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Contact your local DFO office
http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/contact/regions/pacific-pacifique-eng.html

Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0404
Sent May 24, 2018 at 1307

Steelhawk

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2018, 02:24:44 PM »

"Given conservation concerns for Fraser River Chinook, the Department does not plan to adjust management actions for Fraser River Spring and Summer 5-2 Chinook fisheries in-season and additional conservation actions are planned to achieve the Department's conservation objective to reduce exploitation by 25%-35% on Fraser Chinook stocks for the 2018 season."

So what does this mean? If sockeye is open and spring is closed, and we don't get to fish neither?
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chris gadsden

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2018, 05:31:39 PM »

Of course the high water this year makes getting an accurate count unreliable. Saying that I am not saying the Chinook runs are not in trouble.

CohoJake

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2018, 06:40:59 PM »

Of course the high water this year makes getting an accurate count unreliable. Saying that I am not saying the Chinook runs are not in trouble.
I just happened to be looking at the Albion test numbers yesterday before this report came out.  I noticed the last time the count was this low (1) as of this date was 2013, which is the brood year of these returning fish, right?  (assuming they are 5(1) and 5(2) fish).  Anyone remember how 2013 turned out for Fraser springs?
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Tylsie

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2018, 08:25:13 PM »

Between this, court decisions, and the resident killer whales we I highly doubt we will be able to fish salmon on the Fraser ever again. Or at least in decades. The BC and Canadian wildlife recovery plan is simply reduce opportunity; not increase stocks. It is truly a race to bottom, and a few on here will get their wish.

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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2018, 08:25:32 PM »

The  25%-35% reduction is with respect to the

Spring 4/2 Nicola
Summer 4/1 Lower Shuswap
Fall 4/1 Harrison

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rln

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2018, 09:43:12 PM »

DFO’s recover method is to “hope and pray” some come back. One just needs to look at the interior Fraser coho recovery plan, which has been to watch nothing happen for 20 years now. Manage fishermen, not fish is all they do.
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RalphH

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2018, 07:29:53 AM »

Quote
The BC and Canadian wildlife recovery plan is simply reduce opportunity; not increase stocks.

Exactly what other proven means to increase fish numbers are available?

Initiatives to increase the numbers of fish in the Fraser have a 40 year history and mostly failed. While some hatchery programs, most notably the Chilliwack have produced artificial high returns (fall white springs) where previously there was none. I can't think of a single initiative that produced a positive, repeatable long term result.

Most other interior stocks are not doing much better than springs and coho and the future for them is uncertain. There is every reason for pessimism as opposed to optimism.

A large challenge is to increase the number of adult fish now; SRKWs can't go on a starvation diet for 4 or 5 years.

The only approach that has worked is to reduce harvest; commercial netting aimed at Springs was largely eliminated back in the 70s as was the troll fishery in the Strait. That helped bring back numbers in the late 80s and 90s. Since then harvest both in river and off shore has likely increased. Yet all sectors have developed expectations that match a era of high ocean productivity that has been gone for 20+ years and is unlikely to return in anyone's lifetime if at all.

If one stops to consider the rise of in river water temperatures, low water, drought, extreme fire seasons, it's clear the freshwater environment isn't doing any better. Yet so many anglers seem to think all those factors have remained static and the only thing that has changed is FN harvest allocations and the federal management regime.

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wildmanyeah

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2018, 09:06:28 AM »

Wow RalphH,

Very well said, Hard to argue with anything you said.

If your theory is correct about reduced harvest we should see more salmon hit our rivers this fall and that certainly is not a bad thing should they make it to spawn. 
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Robert_G

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2018, 09:22:16 AM »

And yet out of all the 'studies' done on salmon populations, no one talks about 'historical' seal populations on the entire coast from Alaska to California.
There are more seals today then ever...and not just a few more....10s of thousands if not 100s of thousands more up and down the coasts than there used to be. I'm talking all types of seals.
Common sense knows how much salmon they eat...They gorge on them by the millions.

In bumper years, I can remember catching sockeye at Island 22 and Pegleg with a seal bite in the crotch with all the roe sucked out. Yes....seals love to gorge on salmon roe and leave the rest of the fish when they are plentiful. Seen it many times with my own eyes.

I honestly believe that if we had real studies on the effects of overpopulation of seals...we would have some concrete answers. Of course seals are not the only problem with reductions in salmon populations....but they are a major contributor to it...that is a fact.
At the end of the day its all irrelevant anyways because the bleeding hearts are never going to allow a seal cull....ever.
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firstlight

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2018, 10:06:33 AM »

Maybe if they "managed" ALL fishermen things may change?
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RalphH

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2018, 11:18:25 AM »

Quote
I honestly believe that if we had real studies on the effects of overpopulation of seals...we would have some concrete answers. Of course seals are not the only problem with reductions in salmon populations....but they are a major contributor to it...that is a fact.

have been taking place for some years and studies have been released over the last 5 years or so. yes seals eat a lot of salmon particularly sizable smolts like steelhead, spring and coho released from hatcheries. But seals eat other fish that compete with salmon so it's hard to know if our now sizable seal population is a positive, negative or neutral thing.

Quote
At the end of the day its all irrelevant anyways because the bleeding hearts are never going to allow a seal cull....ever.

Basically I agree; politically unpalatable. May not be cost effective either plus a large cull may take too long to see a big reduction in a matter of a few years.
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Steelhawk

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2018, 11:45:07 AM »

In the ocean, salmon face lacking of foods due to the warming of the ocean which deprives plankton from the food chain. Then their prime food source of herring is depleted by the greedy herring roe fishery. They face predation from tuna and mackerel brought up by the warm 'blob' of water and the ever increasing number of seals which humans somehow find the justification to spare it from any harvest or cull. Then if they survive all that and when they mature and return, they face the huge havesting fleets in the open seas, and the myriads of nets (legal or illegal) along the river systems. No wonder they can't survive or thrive as stock against all these negatives. That is why the Americans are releasing a lot more fish to compensate for the increase rate of mortality in the ocean and we are doing the opposite. I still remember the wonder years of Expo 86 when they stocked and released a lot more fish a few years before Expo to generate some phenomenal fishing especially for the Cap. But in this day and age of reducing stocking, the Cap is just a ghost town now. The river eco system hasn't changed that much. So it is the lack of political will to keep up with the reality of the high mortality rate in the ocean by stocking sufficient number of fish to maintain good fishing. Honestly, does DFO and the government head honchos really care about sport fishing that much? The answer is obvious.
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RalphH

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2018, 04:57:16 PM »

Quote
...the Americans are releasing a lot more fish to compensate for the increase rate of mortality in the ocean and we are doing the opposite.

this is false. In fact the Americans in Washington are releasing fewer fish. In fact the # of chinook  about 50% since 1990. Steelhead has dropped by about 20%. Coho releases have dropped by 70%. Chum production has dropped by about 40%. Only sockeye production has increased.

In Oregon total salmon & steelhead releases in 2017 were pretty much the same as in 2007 yet total coho returns in 2017 were about 20,000 vs 50,000 in 2007, chinook returns were about the same at 50,000 and steelhead returns in 2017 were 25,000 vs 56,000 in 2007.


In many ways US salmon programs have adopted the same approach as what is used here in Canada; wild fish are the priority, hatchery production is limited to appropriate situations and hatchery fish are marked.


see:

http://hatcheryreform.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Hatchery-reform-in-Washington-state-for-WA-BC-AGM-3-16-18.pdf

https://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/hatchery/docs/2017_Fish_Propagtion_Annual_Report.pdf

« Last Edit: May 25, 2018, 05:15:20 PM by RalphH »
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Tylsie

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Re: 2018 Fraser river Chinook and Sockeye Salmon Updates
« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2018, 07:16:49 PM »

this is false. In fact the Americans in Washington are releasing fewer fish. In fact the # of chinook  about 50% since 1990. Steelhead has dropped by about 20%. Coho releases have dropped by 70%. Chum production has dropped by about 40%. Only sockeye production has increased.

In Oregon total salmon & steelhead releases in 2017 were pretty much the same as in 2007 yet total coho returns in 2017 were about 20,000 vs 50,000 in 2007, chinook returns were about the same at 50,000 and steelhead returns in 2017 were 25,000 vs 56,000 in 2007.


In many ways US salmon programs have adopted the same approach as what is used here in Canada; wild fish are the priority, hatchery production is limited to appropriate situations and hatchery fish are marked.


see:

http://hatcheryreform.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Hatchery-reform-in-Washington-state-for-WA-BC-AGM-3-16-18.pdf

https://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/hatchery/docs/2017_Fish_Propagtion_Annual_Report.pdf

In January of this year their was a proposition in the Washington State Legislature to increase hatchery Chinook production by 10 to 20 million going forward. The idea was brought forward by Washington F&W, has the support of the Governor and so far all parties. Now this is being done to address the express concerns over the Killer Whale populations but it will surely have an affect on Spring Stocks as well.

As for your earlier post about reducing fishing opportunities being the only proven means of population recovery, I would beg to differ. Opportunities have been continually slashed for the last 25 years. Populations have never continued to decline. Even the DFO's own scientists stated that the reducing fishing opportunities, while having some impact, would be the least effective of all the possible options.
You asked what other proven means to increase fish numbers are available? The answer is easy! HABITAT!!! There are several smaller systems across BC that have come from being void stretches of water in the 80s to remarkable little salmon streams in their own right today. What do almost all of these systems have in common? The habitat has been restored. Spawning grounds were created. Riparian zones were replanted. Culverts were daylighted.

But huge problems still exist. The number of seals that exist today is not abnormally high compared to historical numbers; the problem is rather,the lack of cover. The estuaries used to be filled with drift wood, huge logs, sediment. In other words, places for the juvenile fish to hide. Today they are as barren as the Sahara. Can anyone tell me one beach in the lower mainland that has a healthy population of seaweed/eel grass/kelp? I remember refusing to go into tide pools as a kid 30 years ago because they were so dense with it was stuggle. Heck, I even remember taking my exgf on a date to White Rock and walking through the eel grass picking up crabs (that would of been only about 15 years ago). Go to White Rock now; nothing but sand as far as the eye can see! This massive loss of eel grass has also cost had a huge impact on herring population. Combined with the excessive kelp harvest there is simply not enough spawning areas for the herring numbers to rebound.

Now, many of these concerns are being addressed. But not by the Federal Government or the DFO but concerned citizens. In the DFO and the Minster's announcement to protect the SRKWs they said they were committing 9.5 million towards 8 projects across BC, or about 1.2 million per project. I would hazard a guess that many of the smaller, community driven groups would each spend close to the equivalent each year annually** for years before any real change is seen and the government hopes that 8 projects done once will stem the tide? I am at a loss. People say that fisherman expect to much... I say we know what the rivers and oceans are capable of producing and expect those that make the decisions should focus on achieving those number; not taking away ours!


**I am basing this on personal experience and opinion. For example, if the society I am volunteer had to pay my hourly wage that would probably work out to close to $25,000+ a year. Now, there are about 12 members who are as active (or more so than I am). Add in dozens of other volunteers who spend less, but equally important, hours helping out and labour alone would be over half a million annually. Add in operating costs, incurred expenses, or any supplies that may be donated that the government would have to purchase and the 1.2 million annually is not far off.     
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