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[sockeyed]

Amazing to look at the Misson Hydro-acoustic numbers. Sockeye passing was 60,000 to 100,000 before the commercial opening. Now only 8000 passed yesterday. Discouraging to say the least.


01-Aug    108,400
02-Aug    146,400
03-Aug    115,900
04-Aug    83,700
05-Aug    66,700
06-Aug    57,300
07-Aug    63,200
08-Aug    37,000
09-Aug    8,000

[ynot]

would the Municipality  of hope pile up sharp rocks with a rusty old bed mixed in, sounds like locals did it.and no notice posted.

[Rieber]

Amazing to see look at the Misson Hydro-acoustic numbers. Sockeye passing was 60,000 to 100,000 before the commercial opening. Now only 8000 passed yesterday. Discouraging to say the least.


01-Aug    108,400
02-Aug    146,400
03-Aug    115,900
04-Aug    83,700
05-Aug    66,700
06-Aug    57,300
07-Aug    63,200
08-Aug    37,000
09-Aug    8,000

Didn't the notice say the majority of the fish have passed through and this is why the opening were scheduled when they were? Once the commercial openings begin you would expect the numbers to dramatically drop but you would also expect the amount of sockeye making their way through to start dropping as well. Sure would be interesting to know how many make it past Hope.

[joska]

Maybe bring 6 guys and increase your odds 

pack the boat tomorrow?

[Hike_and_fish]

Looks like a small Tswassen band opening on the weekend and another commercial opening for Wens Area 29 E I believe. Can anyone break down where these sub area a b c and so on are ?

[marshal]

Looks like a small Tswassen band opening on the weekend and another commercial opening for Wens Area 29 E I believe. Can anyone break down where these sub area a b c and so on are ?

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/maps-cartes/salmon-saumon/index-eng.html

Of the ones named, G would be the only one without much impact to this fishery...

[BBarley]

So 1.3 million fish last Mission to August 9th, declining test fisheries “due to algae blooms” up around the northern Island, a few good seine catches around the southern end of the Island. What’s the current p50 forecast for the total run now? Have the late run stocks hit the approach areas?

4 years from now when the big cycle yields less than 5 million fish, where will the blame fall? Degrading ocean conditions, high mortality from en route temperature extremes, habitat destruction, nutrient poor lakes?

I hate to speak for breaking the rules, but why do people consciously live by the rules set forth by the DFO? Their management objectives clearly reflect the current status of salmon populations coast wide.......

[Hike_and_fish]

http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/maps-cartes/salmon-saumon/index-eng.html

Thank you !

[Hike_and_fish]

So 1.3 million fish last Mission to August 9th, declining test fisheries “due to algae blooms” up around the northern Island, a few good seine catches around the southern end of the Island. What’s the current p50 forecast for the total run now? Have the late run stocks hit the approach areas?

4 years from now when the big cycle yields less than 5 million fish, where will the blame fall? Degrading ocean conditions, high mortality from en route temperature extremes, habitat destruction, nutrient poor lakes?

I hate to speak for breaking the rules, but why do people consciously live by the rules set forth by the DFO? Their management objectives clearly reflect the current status of salmon populations coast wide.......

The last statement from DFO explained things clear as mud. Their words clearly recognize the two user groups that harvested the most salmon so far. Now, I'm not getting into why the numbers overall are are falling. That's another discussion for another day.

Quote " Gill net test fishery catches in the Fraser River have declined in recent days largely as a result of the numerous fisheries that have been occurring in the river (commercial and First Nations) ".

Is it my fault because I've harvested 5 fish so far ? Sure a little. But the rec folks take a flash in the pan compared to those two user groups outlined in the last statement.

Also, they state the run size estimate has not changed.

[marshal]

From FN 0597 (July 13):

"...To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
8,423,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
22,937,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal
chance of a higher or lower return) of 13,981,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million. The largest
contributing stocks for the 2018 return are expected to be the Late Shuswap,
Chilko, Quesnel, and Early Shuswap...."

From today's updates:
"...Currently the Early Summer group is tracking below the p50 forecast of 2,155,000...."
"... Assessments for the Summer-run group are ongoing and are looking as large as or larger than the p50 forecast of 4,344,000...."

[RalphH]

It's normal that catch number will drop after some days of sustained fishing. Commercial fishing have been going on in the river and in US waters through the week if FN fishing with allowance for sales is included. Usually within 2 days or so number will rise provided there are no further fisheries of any significance. 

The vast majoirty of the Fraser sockeye are caught in areas 13, 20 and 29 plus US waters from Point Roberts south and west to the San Juan Islands.

As far as what the P50 forecast is - it is still about 14 million. The early Stuart run isn't big enough to make a difference. The early Summer run is lower than expected. They haven't fully assessed the summer run & while it looks to be better than the P50 they usually wait to adopt a new forecast until it's believed most of the fish are off the Fraser mouth or in the river.

The late run fish don't usually show in numbers until the last half of August.

So far this year it is the 1st return since 2014 that has shown to be better than the P50 forecast and in most cases it was much lower. If you look you can find the escapement reports for '15, '16 and '17 on the PSC site.

Exactly what does " ...why do people consciously live by the rules set forth by the DFO?"  mean.

[wildmanyeah]

Commercial and First Nations catch so has been about a million sockeye

https://www.psc.org/download/580/2018/11296/august-10-2018-2.pdf

[RalphH]

Commercial and First Nations catch so has been about a million sockeye

https://www.psc.org/download/580/2018/11296/august-10-2018-2.pdf

half of that has been caught by US fishermen.

[wildmanyeah]

Yeah low diversion rate, USA  will get a bunch this year. Must be colder outside waters

[BBarley]

Exactly what does " ...why do people consciously live by the rules set forth by the DFO?"  mean.

Wrong word used in that sentence; blindly, repeatedly, foolishly could all be substituted to replace consciously........

I don't post here often, but am always lurking...... my point of emphasis is not to cast shame or doubt at the recreational sector, I've fished the Skeena for sockeye all my life and it never really was "a thing" like it is on the Fraser. But I did stand up and take notice 8 years ago when the bumper crop came back and shocked us all. 30 million fish, then 4 years ago it was 20 million fish, now this year it's 13 million fish. Don't be surprised when in 2022 when 8.5 come back and then in 2026 a measly 5 million come back.

I won't pretend to be a scientist, and I'd never claim to know a fraction of what they know when predicting and making management decisions; however, I do believe they have little to no regard for the impact of recreational fisherman and the economic spinoffs they bring. Just this year they (for the first time that I can recall) shut down the entire Skeena drainage due to fears of bad spring/summer Chinook returns as well as dismal sockeye returns. But when the sockeye came back resurgently strong and passed the 600k mark set out in the IFMP, the bag fleet and gill nets were let out every second day. Chinook numbers according to the test fisheries were as strong as any in the past 8 years, yet DFO didn't allow a recreational opening until long after the FN were doing their thing and the boys at the mouth were cleaning up their quota.

So I guess my argument is more towards, rules are rules, laws are laws, breaking them can bring about some serious punishment, but don't blindly believe everything they say and question them every step of the way on the decisions they make.