Subject: FN0597-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 13, 2018
The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 13, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2018 Fraser River
sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel prior
to the season. The majority of sockeye returning in 2018 will be recruits from
adult spawners in 2013 and 2014 with the latter being the Adams River dominant
cycle line. DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2018
continue to be highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and
uncertainty about changes in their productivity as a result of the warm blob
from 2013 to 2016 and the subsequent El Nino at the end of 2016 into early
2017.
To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one
in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below
8,423,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four
chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or above
22,937,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning
purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal
chance of a higher or lower return) of 13,981,000 fish for all management
groups. This is similar to the cycle average of 13.7 million. The largest
contributing stocks for the 2018 return are expected to be the Late Shuswap,
Chilko, Quesnel, and Early Shuswap.
For 2018 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast
timing of July 2 and August 11 respectively were adopted by the Fraser Panel at
the June meeting in Suquamish, Washington. Timing for all other sockeye stocks
was based on the difference between the 2018 Chilko forecast and the historical
median for Chilko (plus 1 day). The pre-season forecast of the proportion of
Fraser River sockeye salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait
is 56%. Given the recent high diversion rates on this cycle line through
Johnstone Strait the Panel chose to adopt the 1990-2017 median diversion rate
of 63% for planning purposes.
The snow pack volume in the Fraser River watershed was well above average in
March and April of this year, however a warmer than normal spring resulted in
early snowmelt throughout the Fraser watershed resulting in well below average
snowpack by June. As such it is anticipated that water levels will be well
below average during the sockeye migration period. This combined with above
average forecast for air temperatures has resulted in a prediction of water
temperatures that will be above the historic mean for July and August. Actual
water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored closely during the
2018 return to determine if migration issues are developing.
For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years,
Early Summer based on the historical median for dominant years only (2018
cycle) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for all years.
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer,
Summer and Late run management groups while the Early Stuart management group
will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER)
of 10%. There will be no in-season estimates of management adjustment for Early
Stuart in 2018 unless the run size is considerably larger than the median
forecast and generates TAC. It is anticipated they will be managed to the LAER,
with the expected outcome of a spawning escapement being below goal.
The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 12 was 17.3° Celsius which is
1.3° Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to
increase to 18.8° Celsius by July 18. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on
July 12 was 5,021 cubic meters per second which is 9% below the average
discharge for this date.
Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 22 at Whonnock and July
2 at Qualark Creek while the Area 20 gill net test fishery began on July 10 and
the Round Island (Area 12) and Cottonwood gill net test fisheries began on July
12. Daily sockeye catches at Whonnock peaked at 29 on July 6 after which they
declined to 2 on July 11. Stock identification analyses indicated the majority
of the sockeye to date have been Early Stuart with low levels of Nadina
starting to show. During the 3 days of test fishing in Area 20 sockeye catches
have increased from 74 on July 10 to 197 on the 12. Early Stuart sockeye is the
dominant stock in the stock ID samples taken on the 10 with low levels of Early
Summers (primarily Nadina) and a few Summer run (Harrison) sockeye.
In-season assessment of Early Stuart sockeye run size will be provided next
week once more information becomes available. Early information is suggesting
the run size of Early Stuart sockeye is tracking at or above the pre-season p50
forecast of 84,000. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally
occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine
areas.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries
have been restricted by the 3 week Early Stuart window closure with limited
fishing opportunities in the Fraser River directed at Chinook salmon. The start-
up of sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated before mid to late July
depending upon location and will be based on the identification of sockeye TAC
for Early Summer or Summer run sockeye. The Early Stuart window closure ends in
Marine waters on July 15 however the data to date does not indicate sufficient
strength in the Early Summer run to initiate fisheries at this time. The start
date for sockeye retention in marine areas will be considered following the
next Panel meeting on July 17.
FSC fishers in marine approach areas, as well as the Fraser River are requested
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.
Commercial and recreational fisheries are not anticipated to begin until the
end of July or early August once commercial TAC has been identified.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Tuesday, July 17, 2018.
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Topic: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices (Read 224402 times)