Subject: FN0661-Salmon - Fraser River Sockeye Update - Areas 11 to 29 - July 27, 2018
The Fraser River Panel met Friday, July 27, to receive an update on the
migration of the Fraser sockeye runs to date and review the status of migration
conditions in the Fraser River watershed.
Gill net test fishery catches in the Fraser River have continued to increase in
both the Whonnock and Cottonwood test fisheries. Mission escapement estimates
have ranged between 23,800 and 48,200 for the past 5 days with the total
sockeye escapement estimate up to July 26 being 396,900. Stock identification
analyses from samples taken in the lower Fraser River continue to show a
decline in Early Stuart sockeye combined with an increase in the proportions of
Early Summers and Summers. Within the Early Summer group Nadina remains the
dominant stock with the later timed South Thompson Early Summer stocks
continuing to increase. The Summer run timing group are primarily Late
Stuart/Stellako and Chilko/Quesnel at this time with some Late Run fish showing
up in the samples.
Marine gill net test fishery catches have been on the increase in both approach
areas for the past three days with Area 20 having the largest daily catch of
468 on July 25. The seine test fisheries began in Area 12 on July 24, Area 20
on July 25 and Area 13 on July 26. Sockeye catches have been low in Areas 12
and 13 to date (less than 400 per day) while Area 20 had a catch of 1075 on
July 25. Stock identification samples are indicating that Early Stuart’s are
through the marine approach areas. Both Areas 20 and 12 are showing Early
Summers and Summers dominating the samples with low but increasing proportions
of Late Run fish. In the Early Summer Run group the later timed South Thompson
stocks are becoming a larger component of the aggregate which is expected as
this group was forecast pre-season to be the largest stock within the Early
Summers. Nadina continues to be making up the largest portion of the samples in
Area 12 while South Thompson Early Summers are now more abundant in Area 20
samples. The current estimate for the diversion rate through Johnstone Strait
has declined to 17% based on the most recent 5 days of catch in the Area 20 and
12 gill net test fisheries. This declining trend is a normal occurrence for the
Diversion Rate at this time of year on this cycle.
For pre-season planning purposes the Fraser Panel has adopted management
adjustments(MA) for Early Stuart based on the historical median for all years,
Early Summer based on the historical median for dominant years only (2018
cycle) and Summer run sockeye based on the historical median for all years.
Model predicted management adjustments based on the water discharge and
temperature predictions were not adopted largely due to the high degree of
uncertainty in the forecasts. Management adjustments are additional fish that
are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an
attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the
different run timing groups. In-season information over the coming weeks will
help to inform future decisions on management adjustments for the Early Summer,
Summer and Late run management groups while the Early Stuart management group
will be managed based on the respective Low Abundance Exploitation Rate (LAER)
of 10%. It is anticipated the Early Stuart sockeye return will result in a
spawning escapement being below goal.
The observed water temperature at Qualark on July 26 dropped to 18.0° Celsius
which is only 0.2° Celsius above average for this date. Water temperatures are
forecast to increase to 20.4° Celsius by August 1. The Fraser River discharge
at Hope on July 26 was 3,998 cubic meters per second which is 14% below the
average discharge for this date.
During the call today the Panel adopted an increase in the run size for Early
Stuart sockeye to 135,000 from the previously adopted run size of 120,000 with
an Area 20 timing of July 5 which is 3 days later than the pre-season forecast
of July 2. No changes were made to the run size or timing of the other run
timing groups although the earliest timed stocks in the Early Summer Run group
are tracking above the p50 forecast of 288,000. In-season assessment of all
run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak
migration through marine areas.
The first spawning ground report was released on July 26. Early Stuart sockeye
were first observed in the terminal area on July 21 with most of the fish
observed holding off the mouths of the spawning tributaries Takla Lake and the
Middle River. Fish condition is reported as being good.
Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries
have begun in Marine areas and the lower Fraser River with areas in the mid and
upper Fraser expected to begin this weekend or later depending upon the area.
FSC fishers in marine approach areas, as well as the Fraser River are requested
to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area.
If the current pattern of Fraser sockeye returns being larger than the p50
forecast continues, Commercial and recreational fisheries are likely to begin
next week with dates and times to be determined following the next Panel
meeting. During the call today the Panel approved an extension to the US commercial
fishery in Areas 4b, 5 and 6c to Wednesday, August 1. This is a low impact gill
net fishery in the outer Juan de Fuca Strait area.
The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on
Tuesday, July 31, 2018.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Regional Salmon Team – DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Author
Topic: 2018 Fraser River Sockeye Notices (Read 224497 times)