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[GENERAL-SHERMAN]

https://www.psc.org/download/580/2018/11318/august-31-2018-2.pdf


Scroll to the bottom for reported catches. Does a 1/4 of commercial numbers seem like a small fraction ?  Seems pretty large to me......

[RalphH]

glad you are satisfied with a quarter of the pie, I'll take the rest.

Thanks for confirming what I wrote.

The commercial take is about 2.5 million. The FN economic opportunities catch is about 1/4 million

[DanL]

https://www.psc.org/download/580/2018/11318/august-31-2018-2.pdf

There's no number yet for the recreational take in that document but I assume they must have had some sort of rough estimate or projection when they opened the rec fishery. Anyone know what (or even how) they are allocating for the rec take?

[BBarley]

So 8 years ago DFO gets a golden goose return of 30 million fish when they were expecting what...... 12 million? Hammer the return with as many nets as they could muster. I seem to recall reading an article saying commercial boats were taking their bounty to the North Coast because the fish plants down south were over capacity. 4 years later, still a pretty sizeable return of 20 million, and yet again they set up the gauntlet and absolutely hammer them.

This year they forecast a more traditional return estimate of 12 million considering the outmigration conditions and trending returns for other systems. So far 8 million have returned and a conservative estimate is that 4.5 of those are already on ice. Awaiting a 7 er 6 oh wait maybe 5.3 stay tuned next week and it will be 4 then finally we had no idea, let’s start a commission 2 million return of late run fish. But it’s ok, as long as we set the p50 target low enough in 2022, all is well.

What a joke........

Hope everyone kept their Canadian Tire receipts and can return their coffee grinder special.

[marshal]

The original DFO rec opening notice FN 0726 states sockeye is open until Sept 3rd
The latest notice FN0923 states no fishing for sockeye beginning Sept 5th.  There is no reference in this notice to the last one, so I does the latter notice supersedes the first notice and Sept 4 is open to rec sockeye retention...... or do both notices exist together (with Sept 4th being a grey zone)?

How are we interpreting this?

[GENERAL-SHERMAN]

There's no number yet for the recreational take in that document but I assume they must have had some sort of rough estimate or projection when they opened the rec fishery. Anyone know what (or even how) they are allocating for the rec take?

What do you think the number of fish is ....? Just throw a number out there! I'd bet money its less than 1% probably closer to .5 %

[marshal]

So 8 years ago DFO gets a golden goose return of 30 million fish when they were expecting what...... 12 million? Hammer the return with as many nets as they could muster. I seem to recall reading an article saying commercial boats were taking their bounty to the North Coast because the fish plants down south were over capacity. 4 years later, still a pretty sizeable return of 20 million, and yet again they set up the gauntlet and absolutely hammer them.

This year they forecast a more traditional return estimate of 12 million considering the outmigration conditions and trending returns for other systems. So far 8 million have returned and a conservative estimate is that 4.5 of those are already on ice. Awaiting a 7 er 6 oh wait maybe 5.3 stay tuned next week and it will be 4 then finally we had no idea, let’s start a commission 2 million return of late run fish. But it’s ok, as long as we set the p50 target low enough in 2022, all is well.

What a joke........

Hope everyone kept their Canadian Tire receipts and can return their coffee grinder special.

I agree, this certainly appears to be mis-management... allowing way too much harvest to maintain / build this species (harvests of 4.5M to date: Comm: 2.5M, FN: 1M, US: 1M and only 3M have made it past Mission and not reported caught upstream by FN). If the runs are late (as an example, Area 20 test catches still showing 40% summer run fish), then there still may be a chance for conservation.  There is apparently a fairly substantial late run volume estimated, and as was said, let's see what this turns into and who is going to get a crack at harvesting, and how often.

[Clarki Hunter]

Does anyone have an estimate on what sporty's harvest?  Aside from extrapolations, is there any estimate from the powers that be?

[RalphH]

sorry but you have zero idea how it works... never stopped to consider the 2010 'bonaza' was based on fewer fish than have returned this year? Forget that only 2009 was only 10% of the forecast? Why is the 4 year cycle that follows 2018 the smallest of all?

Incompetence indeed.

LOL!

So 8 years ago DFO gets a golden goose return of 30 million fish when they were expecting what...... 12 million? Hammer the return with as many nets as they could muster. I seem to recall reading an article saying commercial boats were taking their bounty to the North Coast because the fish plants down south were over capacity. 4 years later, still a pretty sizeable return of 20 million, and yet again they set up the gauntlet and absolutely hammer them.

This year they forecast a more traditional return estimate of 12 million considering the outmigration conditions and trending returns for other systems. So far 8 million have returned and a conservative estimate is that 4.5 of those are already on ice. Awaiting a 7 er 6 oh wait maybe 5.3 stay tuned next week and it will be 4 then finally we had no idea, let’s start a commission 2 million return of late run fish. But it’s ok, as long as we set the p50 target low enough in 2022, all is well.

What a joke........

Hope everyone kept their Canadian Tire receipts and can return their coffee grinder special.

[ynot]

I recall the sports in river was around 135,000  not sure if it was 2014 or 2010. they used to do survey;s at some of the bars. did not see any this year.

[Clarki Hunter]

Oh right the creel guys, I remember now. 

I recall the sports in river was around 135,000  not sure if it was 2014 or 2010. they used to do survey;s at some of the bars. did not see any this year.

[Hike_and_fish]

I recall the sports in river was around 135,000  not sure if it was 2014 or 2010. they used to do survey;s at some of the bars. did not see any this year.

I launched at island 22 5 days a week this cycle. I saw them there after week 1 almost everyday.

DFO or a CO ( in a marked vehicle ) NEVER. They could have been keeping a low profile but I never saw them. I saw RCMP at island 22 arrest guys for public intoxication but that was it. I saw lots of shady happenings on the river. One day I talked to a local band. They showed me 35 springs in their boat. They had not a single care in the world about keeping those Springs. I asked if they were afraid of DFO seeing them, they couldn't give a flying fart about DFO. I saw one guy in a group of 8 land limits for everyone in a hour at one bar. I saw a guy in a boat throw betties at a dude wading in the water behind his boat. I saw two topless young girls bouncing for Sockeye ( that was exciting ). I landed limits in 10min and other days it seemed like the river was empty.

I was very happy to take part in this gongshow. Hope to do it again one day. But in the future I hope whatever government we have in place, I hope they invest money into more CO's.

[dennyman]

  Hey with reference to the two young gals fishing, that gives a whole new meaning to the term "bouncin betties" 

[BBarley]

sorry but you have zero idea how it works... never stopped to consider the 2010 'bonaza' was based on fewer fish than have returned this year? Forget that only 2009 was only 10% of the forecast? Why is the 4 year cycle that follows 2018 the smallest of all?

Incompetence indeed.

LOL!

I’m not going to argue with you Ralph, I’m not falling for your devils advocate tactics. You want to tell me I have no idea what I’m saying than you can provide more than one example.

[RalphH]

I’m not going to argue with you Ralph, I’m not falling for your devils advocate tactics. You want to tell me I have no idea what I’m saying than you can provide more than one example.

ha! - asking to provide more than one example is asking for an argument. Even at that I offered more than 1 question to ponder.

Anyway I'll grant your first wish.