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[Robert_G]

I'd love to see the escapements to go along with those cycles

[RalphH]

the final reports are found at: https://www.psc.org/publications/annual-reports/fraser-river-panel/

so the spawning escapement can be found there.

Escapement for 2014 was 5.877 million

The 2006 escapement, from which the record 2010 run was derived, was 4.61 million

It's worth noting that DanL's table excludes the US catch.

[marshal]

I'd love to see the escapements to go along with those cycles

Adding to '06 and '14.... Escapements to spawning ground:
- 2010: 13.1 million (47% of final run estimate)
- 2011:   2.6 million (51% of final run estimate)
- 2014:   5.9 million (29% of final run estimate)

Escapement past Mission:
- 2010:      14.3 million (51% of final run estimate) (note: report stated 16 million, but this was a mgmt decision to align with other HA counts further upstream)
- 2011:        3.9 million (76% of final run estimate)
- 2014:      10.1 million (50% of final run estimate)... looks like alot of fish lost upstream of Mission in '14 (water volume / temp.?)
- 2018 YTD: 3.8 million (48% of all accounted, as of Sept. 07/18) (quantity past Mission + total marine TAC, )

Total all TAC:
- 2010:      13.6 million (49% of final run estimate)
- 2011:        2.1 million (41% of final run estimate)
- 2014:      11.2 million (56% of final run estimate)
- 2018 YTD: 4.7 million (60% of all accounted, as of Sept. 07/18) (total all TAC + quantity past Mission (less 762k upstream catch))

[Hike_and_fish]

Definitely looks like things are on a downward trend

[Robert_G]

Adding to '06 and '14.... Escapements to spawning ground:
- 2010: 13.1 million (47% of final run estimate)
- 2011:   2.6 million (51% of final run estimate)
- 2014:   5.9 million (29% of final run estimate)

Escapement past Mission:
- 2010:      14.3 million (51% of final run estimate) (note: report stated 16 million, but this was a mgmt decision to align with other HA counts further upstream)
- 2011:        3.9 million (76% of final run estimate)
- 2014:      10.1 million (50% of final run estimate)... looks like alot of fish lost upstream of Mission in '14 (water volume / temp.?)
- 2018 YTD: 3.8 million (48% of all accounted, as of Sept. 07/18) (quantity past Mission + total marine TAC, )

Total all TAC:
- 2010:      13.6 million (49% of final run estimate)
- 2011:        2.1 million (41% of final run estimate)
- 2014:      11.2 million (56% of final run estimate)
- 2018 YTD: 4.7 million (60% of all accounted, as of Sept. 07/18) (total all TAC + quantity past Mission (less 762k upstream catch))

Those numbers tell us everything we need to know......or I should say already knew.

[marshal]

The final estimate of the sockeye return in 2010 was 28 million.
In 2014, it was 20.1 million (approx 70% of the 2010 return).
In 2018, the return estimate is 13.9 million (70% of the 2014 return). 
Not liking this trend.

It looks like DFO is targeting a 50-60% TAC in each of the last 2 big return years, so I would imagine the same for this year..... but the numbers above appear to indicate that its too much to be able to sustain the species.

Where are all the sockeye being sold?  Not seeing a big bounty in any of my local grocery stores....

[BBarley]

Is there somewhere we can see the previous outgoing smolt numbers? Surely someone can find these in the DFO/PSC archives.......

[RalphH]

The final estimate of the sockeye return in 2010 was 28 million.
In 2014, it was 20.1 million (approx 70% of the 2010 return).
In 2018, the return estimate is 13.9 million (70% of the 2014 return). 
Not liking this trend.

LOL! You guys have no idea how this works but will spin some sort of conspiracy theory out of anything.

As I mentioned above you also need to look at 2006 and earlier where the overall trend of abundance was down as was the exploitation rate.

Exploitation goes up with abundance because there is a declining return with spawning escapement. Record returns do not repeat over time but there is an echo effect ...  2010 was over double 2006, 2014 was close to double 2006 and now 2018 has more or less the same 2006. That's how the cycle works. High returns in one cycle are almost always followed by lower returns because the factors that cause an outlier are highly unlikely to repeat.

2010 was an outlier; a 1 in over 100 event. Any of you any heard of something the power law? Unlikely to re-occur in our life times

Before 1980 the cycle abundance was well under 10 million, sometimes well under 5 million.

[Hike_and_fish]

LOL! You guys have no idea how this works but will spin some sort of conspiracy theory out of anything.

As I mentioned above you also need to look at 2006 and earlier where the overall trend of abundance was down as was the exploitation rate.

Exploitation goes up with abundance because there is a declining return with spawning escapement. Record returns do not repeat over time but there is an echo effect ...  2010 was over double 2006, 2014 was close to double 2006 and now 2018 has more or less the same 2006. That's how the cycle works. High returns in one cycle are almost always followed by lower returns because the factors that cause an outlier are highly unlikely to repeat.

2010 was an outlier; a 1 in over 100 event. Any of you any heard of something the power law? Unlikely to re-occur in our life times

Before 1980 the cycle abundance was well under 10 million, sometimes well under 5 million.

Yawn

Let the people engage in conversation. Nobody is as smart as you. You make that quite obvious

[marshal]

RalpH, you sound like you have some knowledge on the matter.... happy to be enlightened...  Seems like the DFO had an opportunity to use the 2010 "outlying event" to build the stock, since they have been trying to rebuild it for decades, no?  Including a commission in 2009 to investigate depleted returns....
Unless there is some max number for spawning over which there is diminishing returns, the harvest for these years not making alot of sense, so open to being enlightened......

[BBarley]

It’s kinda funny to be bickering over a quadrennial cycle of previously regarded “meat fish” as if it’s the last bastion of hope that the salmon fishery in the Fraser will survive. Worst case scenario...... exploitation rate supersedes maintaining the stock numbers and the stock collapses, Fraser sockeye remains shut down and all comigrating subspecies reap the benefit.

That’s been the mantra on the Skeena for years and I’m sure it’s true for many other river systems, depressed sockeye is good for just about every other stock as far as interception goes.

Still curious to see if anyone can provide outmigrating smolt numbers to match up with the exploitation rates and escapement reports from 2006-2014. Was there an increase in smolt production from the lakes or did they just encounter exceptional ocean conditions?

[wildmanyeah]

Here is what Ralph is saying

Higher encampment does not = higher abundance 4 years later... To 2006 escapement of of 4 million resulted in an abundance of almost 30 million in 2010.

The 2010 Escapement of 12 million only resulted in an abundance of 20 million in 2014.

[marshal]

What I'm saying is that we have been blessed with the 2006/2010 outlying event, why not take advantage of it.... or are you saying we may as well put 'em on ice because letting 'em spawn has little effect?  Not sure I follow that logic.
More fish that spawn (to whatever threshold) = more potential smolts.... birds and bees.  In 2014, there was a high number past Mission that didn't make it to spawning grounds..... sure this data represents spawning numbers, and if so, how accurate is it?

Can't get past the birds/bees process....

[wildmanyeah]

Most of the spawning grounds for the adams cycle have been over 97% full over many of the last cycle years. DFO has a formula for calculating how much space salmon need to spawn.

If spawning grounds get to full, fish returning after other salmon have already spawned will diss lodge the other salmon eggs when they make their redds.  Thus there is a max capacity for spawning grounds.


PSC does have the spawning capacity numbers if you want to go did though that data.

The process isn't perfect make no mistake we do over fish some runs while targeting the dominate runs.  Putting more spawning on the grounds is generally always better

[Dave]

Still curious to see if anyone can provide outmigrating smolt numbers to match up with the exploitation rates and escapement reports from 2006-2014. Was there an increase in smolt production from the lakes or did they just encounter exceptional ocean conditions?

Afaik, only 2 Fraser River stocks have smolt enumerations, Cultus and Chilko.  Dfo's Lake Studies group, based out of the Cultus Lake Laboratory, used to monitor sockeye numbers in the main rearing lakes, at least they did 10 years ago, lol.  Those numbers were used in overall run predictions.