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[redside1]

from a buddy in the DFO sockeye working group and it looks like the fat lady is starting to sing.............

 I was in the Sockeye Working Group meeting via the SFAB process on Wed.  We have been meeting every Wed at 3pm. 
 
Run is tracking in the p10 to p25 range.  Not good.  I asked what would happen if we came in at p25 (about 4.3 million fish) and if that number of fish is enough to trigger commercial or recreational opportunities.  The answer was not likely.  Taking into consideration it is actually around p10 this past week, it’s not looking good.  They showed one model as if the fish were a week late and it didn’t even get it up to a p25.
 
So unless a bunch of fish show up next week and get things trending towards a p25 or better, I don’t think we are going to get an opening. 
 
Hopefully that happens, but DFO seemed to be suggesting that was not likely going to happen based on what they have seen this past week and the info coming down the line…. Historically runs have been tracking p30 or less in recent years

[wildmanyeah]

It’s changed a bit since the Wednesday meeting last week. Summers are tracking p50 In river but p25 in marine tests.

Still could be an opening but it’s certainly not a guarantee

[RalphH]

Run is tracking in the p10 to p25 range.  Not good.  I asked what would happen if we came in at p25 (about 4.3 million fish) and if that number of fish is enough to trigger commercial or recreational opportunities.  The answer was not likely.  Taking into consideration it is actually around p10 this past week, it’s not looking good.  They showed one model as if the fish were a week late and it didn’t even get it up to a p25.

This is really bad news. I recently read an article As sockeye run numbers in systems up the coast were seeing high returns most observers expected a good return on the Fraser. That it looks like that it so not happening it indicates something else is happening to keep Fraser returns low:

https://thetyee.ca/News/2022/08/08/Skeena-Sockeye-Returns-Surging-But-Big-Concerns-Remain/

“If you’re a sockeye, or a salmon, it’s just a more amenable environment out in the ocean for you right now,” Taylor said. “The unnerving part is what can go down can go up again and, of course, we had successive years of very warm sea surface temperatures, including the Blob, that had a really a negative impact upon salmon.

“Most of us are thinking this might bode well for next year, and maybe even the year after, but in our age it’s hard to look too far into the future.”

While it’s still early days, Taylor said the outlook isn’t looking as positive for the Fraser River, which has also struggled in recent years with low returns. He expects there will be a clearer picture in the days ahead.

“A lot of us are watching the Fraser with real interest, because if it doesn’t come back, it speaks to something else going on with the Fraser,” he said. “Other sockeye runs, we knew off the bat — this is going to be a big one.”

[wildmanyeah]

Taylor is bang on typically the Fraser will trend with runs like the skeena and nass who seem returmd well above brood.

[Phronesis]

Does Alaska commercial fishery intercepting Salmon headed towards BC have an affect ?

[danielk]

Best to just think there is no opening this year !!!! And when you see we get a 3 day opportunity.  It will be like a kid opening a Christmas present.    No point getting your hopes up

[roeman]

Was driving between Hope and Yale  a couple days ago and seen 5 pickups in different locations with the large fish totes in the back coming up from the Fraser.  Sockeye netting must be good for some.  Too bad you have to be part of a group that complains and brings up things that happened a 100 years ago to catch fish.  Anyone that buys fish from them should be arrested. 

[Dubs604]

Too bad you have to be part of a group that complains and brings up things that happened a 100 years ago to catch fish.

To be fair, I’d be upset too if some folks stole my land and buried my kid behind a church. 

[RalphH]

To be fair, I’d be upset too if some folks stole my land and buried my kid behind a church.

good post!

[52buick]

Was driving between Hope and Yale  a couple days ago and seen 5 pickups in different locations with the large fish totes in the back coming up from the Fraser.  Sockeye netting must be good for some.  Too bad you have to be part of a group that complains and brings up things that happened a 100 years ago to catch fish.  Anyone that buys fish from them should be arrested.

Distasteful post. Misdirected anger at a group that is allowed by law to net for food, social and ceremonial purposes.  It is too bad that the recreational sockeye opening didn't get announced but perhaps anger should be directed at DFO and other governing agencies that have mismanaged fisheries for decades.

[armytruck]

Does Alaska commercial fishery intercepting Salmon headed towards BC have an affect ?

Yes it does 😑

[Blood_Orange]

Was driving between Hope and Yale  a couple days ago and seen 5 pickups in different locations with the large fish totes in the back coming up from the Fraser.  Sockeye netting must be good for some.  Too bad you have to be part of a group that complains and brings up things that happened a 100 years ago to catch fish.  Anyone that buys fish from them should be arrested.

I don't understand how you can be jealous of those who have lost so much.

[Darko]

I don't understand how you can be jealous of those who have lost so much.

exactly, I would be a first time sockeye angler and I would be more disappointed than anybody else if it doesn't open as I've been waiting for this since I started fishing two years ago but what else can I do than sit and hope for an opening.

[wildmanyeah]

A lot of times I don’t see these comments coming from a place of jealousy but rather a sense that all Canadian should share equally and there should be some level of fairness.

First Nations are “Citizen plus”

And that plus part is what I see some struggling with to accept.

[RalphH]

A lot of times I don’t see these comments coming from a place of jealousy but rather a sense that all Canadian should share equally and there should be some level of fairness.

First Nations are “Citizen plus”

And that plus part is what I see some struggling with to accept.

Calling FNs "citizens plus" is so shockingly biased it's hard not to ascribe to nothing other than  obnoxious racism. On pretty much every socio-economic measure of well beings FNs are far worse off than the general population!. When I say general population that includes other people who are not members of the until the present structurally privileged and entitled people (particularly males) of European background.

Even the first sentence of your post is a sort of nonsense. There is nothing in our laws that guarantees an equal access. We have to buy licenses for access. Access is controlled & restricted. These factors don't even consider the historical and legal rights of FNs who you seem to ignore were here first and at the outset the government of Canada and it's predecessor authorities recognized as long ago as 300 years and more.