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[RalphH]

Within the next 75 years virtually all of the Northern Hemisphere's glaciers will disappear if climate change progresses as expected. The impact on salmon stocks from Oregon to Alaska will be serious says a paper  published this past week  in the journal Science; https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo1324

A host of streams and rivers that depend of glacier melt, particularly in our increasingly hot, dry summers will be affected as water levels drop and temperatures rise into levels that can be fatal to salmon.

The globe and Mail published a article in today's edition that looks at this particularly considering 2 BC Rivers; The Englishman near Parksville and the Squamish.


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bcs-glacier-fed-rivers-saved-salmon-in-last-years-drought-that-safety/

You may need a subscription to access these articles but here are a few excerpts from the Globe and Mail:

A record-breaking drought in southern British Columbia in 2022 was deadly for Pacific salmon, leaving dried-up riverbanks thick with carcasses. Many more fish were unable to make their way up to their spawning beds during their peak migration time. The magnitude of the losses won’t be known for years.

For rivers fed by Western Canada’s immense array of glaciers, however, there was salvation. Seasonal runoff from glaciers in summer provides a clean, cool and reliable flow.

But the buffer that glaciers provide against increasingly extreme weather patterns is on the clock, and time is running out...

“After 2040, you really start to see a difference in the amount of aerial loss of glaciers not only in Western Canada, but throughout the planet,” said Brian Menounos, a professor of earth sciences at the University of Northern B.C., and the Canada Research Chair in Glacier Change.

The importance of glaciers to maintaining resilient watersheds was made clear last year when the south coast of B.C. experienced a lengthy and severe drought. For those rivers without glacial runoff, the consequences for aquatic life were dire.

The Englishman River on Vancouver Island is prized as a wild river that hosts every species of salmon on the coast. It depends on seasonal snow for runoff, and by midsummer and through the fall last year, the river’s flow virtually stalled. The daytime temperature of the water, in places, climbed to lethal levels for young salmon. “These broad, wide pools on the lower Englishman were death chambers,” said biologist David Clough. Mr. Clough has worked on the Englishman River on Vancouver Island since 1981, and he has spent many years assisting organizations seeking to enhance and protect its salmon habitat. “I swam it, I went eyeball-to-eyeball with the salmon. It was a first love.” The river system is fragile, because of industrial logging, agriculture and urban development. “There’s no shock absorber,” he explained.

Decades of conservation efforts were set back in the span of a year: Before last year’s drought, there was the torrential rainfall from a set of atmospheric rivers in November, 2021, that wiped out the spawning beds. Between those two extreme weather events, Mr. Clough believes, roughly 60 per cent of the river’s salmon production was lost....

Prof. Menounos, using the forecasts for glacier loss, expects the Squamish River will see even greater runoff in the coming decade as its contributing glaciers waste away. After that, the line trends steeply down, until it is gone....

“There’s no doubt that salmon experienced higher levels of stress, and that stress could manifest in the next generation – we’ll see them in two, three, four, five years, when the salmon come back.”

While glacier-fed rivers like the Squamish are more resilient, she worries about the future. “In southern B.C., we are riding the coattails of the last glaciers we have intact, and that’s going to change,” she said.

“We’re seeing higher glacial runoff in those areas, and that’s expected to climb over the next decade.” But once that’s gone, freshwater salmon habitat won’t be the same.

 

[SuperBobby]

On December 14th 2008, Al Gore predicted the North Polar Ice Cap would be COMPLETELY gone in 5 years. That prediction from him is a documented fact. 14 years later here we are and the North Polar Ice Cap is still very much here at a very similar mass compared to 2008....and in fact it has never even touched the record (assumed) of 2012.

These headlines have been all over the popular news papers and channels since the 1960s. Thousands of documented predictions on climate doomsday theories. Zero came true.
Indoctrination and fearmongering. You would think that people would catch on after 60 years, but there is something about the Kool-Aid that they can't stop drinking it.

Yes, we are in a warming phase and many glaciers are shrinking, but as for the Squamish/Elaho glaciers.....there is zero chance in this generation of them melting to nothing. Not going to happen.

[RalphH]

Is that you John Wayne?

As for what Gore said in 2008 here is the straight dope from Snopes: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ice-caps-melt-gore-2014/

regarding the Pemberton Ice-field tell you what - let's look each other up in 100 years and discuss the situation. I think I know how to find you.

Cheers

[SuperBobby]

Is that you John Wayne?

As for what Gore said in 2008 here is the straight dope from Snopes: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ice-caps-melt-gore-2014/

regarding the Pemberton Ice-field tell you what - let's look each other up in 100 years and discuss the situation. I think i know how to find you.

Cheers

The fact that after all this time you still trust Snopes as an unbiased factchecker is scary.





There are 100s more of these. He indeed predicted it.

[RalphH]

After all this time you can't figure out what a thread is about? It has nothing to do with what Gore said in 2007, 2008 or whatever your particular fetish is of the moment.

[Blood_Orange]

If one dude was wrong about one thing that one time, then nothing is true and everything is a lie. Wake up, Sheeple!

[RalphH]

I think the information in the articles was quite clear. The sort of cycle of flood and drought events are very hard on our salmon and trout stocks. Where rivers and streams get melt water from glaciers these provide an important buffer during droughts such as we experienced this summer and fall. If glacier melt off as many scholars who study them expect to over the next 100+ years that buffer will be lost. We do know that almost all glaciers in the Pacific Northwest are losing ice mass. They are melting.

My thinking that some may find that information of interest. The quoted study does indicate a range of predicted glacier loss over the course of this century. They are not saying they will melt away just that this is likely if current climate changes continue.

[Darko]

I think the information in the articles was quite clear. The sort of cycle of flood and drought events are very hard on our salmon and trout stocks. Where rivers and streams get melt water from glaciers these provide an important buffer during droughts such as we experienced this summer and fall. If glacier melt off as many scholars who study them expect to over the next 100+ years that buffer will be lost. We do know that almost all glaciers in the Pacific Northwest are losing ice mass. They are melting.

My thinking that some may find that information of interest. The quoted study does indicate a range of predicted glacier loss over the course of this century. They are not saying they will melt away just that this is likely if current climate changes continue.

Ralph is right, the facts are obvious, future isn't looking bright for our fish, fish are getting screwed in every way possible. The amount of money our fish get is a joke. All of Canada gets 200 million in aid for fish over 7 years. While already over 3.4 Billion has been dedicated to Ukraine. Us fisherman and conservationists who actually care simply don't make up enough of the population to make a significant difference. Also we tend not to have much political or monetary control... Which is 99% of the game of making any significant change in this world...

[milo]

Ralph is right, the facts are obvious, future isn't looking bright for our fish, fish are getting screwed in every way possible.

He is indeed right. Regardless of what deniers say, all it takes is to analize the last 50 years or so. Some old timers here were around and fishing in the 60s and 70s, 80s and 90s, and they have witnessed first-hand the deterioration of the salmon runs, and with it, of our fisheries.
Heck, even I, who only began fishing salmon in the early 2000s, have seen a tremendous decline in the number of fish returning to spawn and the disappearance (justifiably so) of many sport fishing opportunities.
I remember days on the Squamish, Cheakamus, Vedder, Harrison, where my arms literally hurt from fighting dozens of salmon a day. Not even 20 years ago, I could get into double digits red springs on the Vedder on opening day. Limiting out was a norm, if you wanted to. Today, our salmon fisheres are but a thin shadow of their former selves.
I certainly believe that there is a correlation between climate change and receding glaciers, as well as a cause-effect relationship between climate change and the crash of our salmon stock. Add to that ocean survival challenges, DFO's incompetence, overfishing, and a myriad other factors, and the picture certainly looks grim.
When years ago DaveB said to me that he wouldn't fish for salmon and steelhead anymore because he didn't want to continue being part of the problem, I had a bit of a hard time to understand where he was coming from. For someone who hadn't experienced the golden age of salmon and steelhead fishing of the 60s and 70s, things still looked pretty darn good to me at the time. Today, some 10-15 years later, I feel the same way Dave does.

I'm a catch and kill angler, and if a fishery can't sustain it, I'd rather refrain from partaking.
Thankfully, the Stillwater Fishery Society of BC has done a fantastic job planting triploids in interior lakes, so fly-fishing for trout continues to be excellent and I get to scratch the fishing itch and get some tasty table fare.
I hope there is truth to what Superbobby says about the problem being temporary and things get better in a century or so. But from where I stand, salmon are suffering big time and we have a lot to worry about.

[SuperBobby]

I hope there is truth to what Superbobby says about the problem being temporary and things get better in a century or so. But from where I stand, salmon are suffering big time and we have a lot to worry about.

When I said temporary, I meant the climate. The coastal salmon fishing is DEAD.
The warming temperatures are only a very small factor in the overall decline of our salmon.
For example, even the HOTTEST summers in the Skeena watershed since 2000 are still cooler than the NORMAL summers in the lower Fraser watershed. With that said, the devastating decline in the Skeena salmon has NOTHING to do with warmer summers.

On the flip side, the Rogue River system in Oregon has suffered more from the warming temperatures, but long term records show that even in the early 20th century that there were years where the salmon struggled with the heat. At the end of the day, the Rogue system is almost 1000km south of here and the salmon have not completely perished, and the Rogue river valley is hot....practically a desert climate in summer.

[RalphH]

I had no intention on opening a debate about climate change. In the first sentence I also was clear the predictions in the study depend on climate change models being correct over the next several decades. Agree or not agree with the models or our larger situation re: wild fires, floods, droughts, heat domes et all, as you wish. Salmon and steelhead have had it hard for the last 10+ years  pretty much up and down the Pacific Coast. Most people who are not laymen such as us attribute this to a warmer ocean regime; El Nino,the warm water blob etc which generally make for less food of lower nutritional value in the open ocean. Lately we've seen "La Nina" or cooler water and some improvements in fish numbers. There are of course a welter of problematic issues that negatively affect salmon. Anglers pick these to explain the decline in fish numbers like kids pick candy.

[Dave]

He is indeed right. Regardless of what deniers say, all it takes is to analize the last 50 years or so. Some old timers here were around and fishing in the 60s and 70s, 80s and 90s, and they have witnessed first-hand the deterioration of the salmon runs, and with it, of our fisheries.
Heck, even I, who only began fishing salmon in the early 2000s, have seen a tremendous decline in the number of fish returning to spawn and the disappearance (justifiably so) of many sport fishing opportunities.
I remember days on the Squamish, Cheakamus, Vedder, Harrison, where my arms literally hurt from fighting dozens of salmon a day. Not even 20 years ago, I could get into double digits red springs on the Vedder on opening day. Limiting out was a norm, if you wanted to. Today, our salmon fisheres are but a thin shadow of their former selves.
I certainly believe that there is a correlation between climate change and receding glaciers, as well as a cause-effect relationship between climate change and the crash of our salmon stock. Add to that ocean survival challenges, DFO's incompetence, overfishing, and a myriad other factors, and the picture certainly looks grim.
When years ago DaveB said to me that he wouldn't fish for salmon and steelhead anymore because he didn't want to continue being part of the problem, I had a bit of a hard time to understand where he was coming from. For someone who hadn't experienced the golden age of salmon and steelhead fishing of the 60s and 70s, things still looked pretty darn good to me at the time. Today, some 10-15 years later, I feel the same way Dave does.

I'm a catch and kill angler, and if a fishery can't sustain it, I'd rather refrain from partaking.
Thankfully, the Stillwater Fishery Society of BC has done a fantastic job planting triploids in interior lakes, so fly-fishing for trout continues to be excellent and I get to scratch the fishing itch and get some tasty table fare.
I hope there is truth to what Superbobby says about the problem being temporary and things get better in a century or so. But from where I stand, salmon are suffering big time and we have a lot to worry about.

Well Milo, we had a few good days together!  I, and buck and spoiler are probably the only members from this forum that started fishing the Vedder in the 60’s and indeed we saw some awesome fishing. The turnaround in abundance and diversity of stocks from this system in my lifetime is phenomenal. Just two examples … in the 70’s, in mid-winter, one could drive up to the box canyon in the closed area and see hundreds of holding steelhead. 50 years later, when buck and I looked while doing our steelhead counts, we saw none.  And again, this time 60 years ago, Sweltzer Creek had viable steelhead, char and cutthroat populations … now resident salmonids are almost nonexistent.
 So many reasons for these declines but imo, climate change and all that entails is the major cause.  I don't see anything getting better unfortunately.

[GordJ]

Dave, I agree with most of your post except for the penultimate sentence. Last year I was in Iquitos in Peru and I was surprised that directly in front of a city of almost one million residents you could go out on the Amazon and catch your lunch predictably. Before Covid I was in the Galapagos and was amazed at the sheer numbers of fish and wildlife in the waters. Of course illegal fishing fleets are threatening these fish but they are still illegal fleets. A couple of years before that we visited Aitutaki in the Cook Islands and were amazed that you could catch 10 pound bonefish fairly easily. All of these places have one thing in common, there is no fishery industry. They only fish for local consumption. They haven’t removed millions of tonnes of fish to be shipped somewhere else. Instead of protecting salmon in freshwater why don’t we just stop killing them in saltwater? We complain about shipping raw logs out of province but don’t say a word about doing exactly the same with salmon. Go to the store and try and find a can of BC salmon. We gain almost no benefit from the industrial raping of our waters but we do get to pay for habitat restoration and any other attempts to mitigate the decline. The easiest way to slow the decline, in my opinion, is to stop killing salmon, halibut and herring and shipping them out of country. If you don’t remove tonnes and tonnes of fish from the environment you will have more fish.

[sumasriver]

BC commercial fishery is about profits for a very  few.....   

[Darko]

Dave, I agree with most of your post except for the penultimate sentence. Last year I was in Iquitos in Peru and I was surprised that directly in front of a city of almost one million residents you could go out on the Amazon and catch your lunch predictably. Before Covid I was in the Galapagos and was amazed at the sheer numbers of fish and wildlife in the waters. Of course illegal fishing fleets are threatening these fish but they are still illegal fleets. A couple of years before that we visited Aitutaki in the Cook Islands and were amazed that you could catch 10 pound bonefish fairly easily. All of these places have one thing in common, there is no fishery industry. They only fish for local consumption. They haven’t removed millions of tonnes of fish to be shipped somewhere else. Instead of protecting salmon in freshwater why don’t we just stop killing them in saltwater? We complain about shipping raw logs out of province but don’t say a word about doing exactly the same with salmon. Go to the store and try and find a can of BC salmon. We gain almost no benefit from the industrial raping of our waters but we do get to pay for habitat restoration and any other attempts to mitigate the decline. The easiest way to slow the decline, in my opinion, is to stop killing salmon, halibut and herring and shipping them out of country. If you don’t remove tonnes and tonnes of fish from the environment you will have more fish.

Each day on my commute to school at Douglas college, on my way home at the sky train station I see the murals of 2-3 men beside a pile of thousands of dead salmon, this and looking at the Fraser and thinking of what the past would've been like is an indescribable feeling. Natural resources should have way stricter controls and monitoring, though humans through their stupidly will follow the age old notion that they wont appreciate what they have until its gone. I don't see how the future will change significantly because I don't see a shift in power or influence happening. Kids are given phones to watch brainwashing tik toks. What's so interesting is that in China (where tik tok is made) kids will be fed videos of kids learning, engineering, school, technology, while in the west kids look at people dancing, stupid pranks, half naked females. Absolutely horrid for minds of youth. Instead of reading books and playing outdoors. Natural tendency to take the easy way out...