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Author Topic: Would You like to have an argument or just interested in abuse?( was Snow pack)  (Read 14324 times)

RalphH

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Again the comparison basis for historical average is different for December than March or April
some consideration of snowfall vs snowpack:

Whistler Snow report:

https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx

https://mtseymour.ca/the-mountain/todays-conditions-hours

The actual snowpack levels on an adjusted seasonal basis have declined since January from 87% of normal to 73% as of March 1st. Late snowpack is the first to melt off and if it makes up a larger than normal % of the pack it means there could be an early loss of the pack causing drought conditions in summer.

Quote
"Low snowpack and seasonal runoff forecasts combined with warm seasonal weather forecasts and lingering impacts from ongoing drought are pointing toward elevated drought hazards for this upcoming spring and summer,"

If you look at Fig 3 on pg 6 of the report the SWEs are actually worse than the snowpack data suggests. Most measurement stations actually saw decreased snowpacks vs Feb 1st (pg 5). The Provincial figure is influenced by high snowpacks in Northern BC.



« Last Edit: March 13, 2025, 04:24:05 PM by RalphH »
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" ...no one predicted Mr. Trump would behave quite so insanely as he has in fact behaved – as always, Mr. Trump exceeds all expectations of how much he would exceed expectations of how much worse he would perform than expected. "
Andrew Coyne, Globe and Mail Feb 13, 2025

SuperBobby

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Again the comparison basis for historical average in different for December than March or April
some consideration of snowfall vs snowpack:

Whistler Snow report:

https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx

https://mtseymour.ca/the-mountain/todays-conditions-hours

The actual snowpack levels on an adjusted seasonal basis have declined since January from 87% of normal to 73% as of March 1st. Late snowpack is the first to melt off and if it makes up a larger than normal % of the pack it means there could be an early loss of the pack causing drought conditions in summer.

If you look at Fig 3 on pg 6 of the report the SWEs are actually worse than the snowpack data suggests. Most measurement stations actually saw decreased snowpacks vs Feb 1st (pg 5). The Provincial figure is influenced by high snowpacks in Northern BC.

I understand that 'snowfall' and 'snowpack' are not the same thing.
What you are failing to realize by your link is that Whistler has received 5 feet of snowfall in the last 7 days. Forecast is for another 5 feet or more of snow in the next 7 days.
10 feet of 'snowfall' is a lot of snow no matter how you shake it. Yes, I get it that we aren't talking about 10 feet of snowpack, but 10 feet of fresh 'snowfall' produces a lot of snow water.

The bottomline is at the rate we are going, the end of the month reports will probably be a lot more positive for the coastal mountains then the March 1st report.
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RalphH

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I don't know where you get your figures but this mornings' Whistler Blackcomb forecast through next Thursday is about 16cm ofd total snowfall which is well below 10 feet. Fact is it is about half a foot.  (https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx  @ approx 8:30 am date of this post. Note like all forecasts this may change within the hour)

You often say things that are just not credible but are in-credible in the true sense of the word.

Something else you are doing is predict the future and not look at the results. You also do it based on 2nd hand info or one or 2 data points. The  snowpack reporting system uses over 90.

How 'bad' is the current situation. Depends on the watershed. Some areas like the Chilcotin (16%) are currently very low. Others are Ok. I'd say about 70% of average isn't that bad. Places like the Island and the Sechelt area can likely manage so that's ok compared to 2 years ago when the Sechelt reservoirs were all but dry.

 I don't know how reliable all the regional reports are. For example Boundary had some dry years but this year and last it looks good. However there is only one data collection site in Boundary. From my knowledge of the Region I'd think that actual broad snow cover is more important vs the snowpack on the few relatively high peaks.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2025, 08:49:07 AM by RalphH »
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" ...no one predicted Mr. Trump would behave quite so insanely as he has in fact behaved – as always, Mr. Trump exceeds all expectations of how much he would exceed expectations of how much worse he would perform than expected. "
Andrew Coyne, Globe and Mail Feb 13, 2025

SuperBobby

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I don't know where you get your figures but this mornings' Whistler Blackcomb forecast through next Thursday is about 16cm ofd total snowfall which is well below 10 feet. Fact is it is about half a foot.  (https://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx  @ approx 8:30 am date of this post. Note like all forecasts this may change within the hour)

You often say things that are just not credible but are in-credible in the true sense of the word.

Something else you are doing is predict the future and not look at the results. You also do it based on 2nd hand info or one or 2 data points. The  snowpack reporting system uses over 90.

How 'bad' is the current situation. Depends on the watershed. Some areas like the Chilcotin (16%) are currently very low. Others are Ok. I'd say about 70% of average isn't that bad. Places like the Island and the Sechelt area can likely manage so that's ok compared to 2 years ago when the Sechelt reservoirs were all but dry.


 I don't know how reliable all the regional reports are. For example Boundary had some dry years but this year and last it looks good. However there is only one data collection site in Boundary. From my knowledge of the Region I'd think that actual broad snow cover is more important vs the snowpack on the few relatively high peaks.


If you read my posts, you would see that I was talking about the 'coastal ranges'. Anyways....it's not worth arguing with you. I stand by what I said that come March 31, I think the 'coastal range' snowpack will be in better shape then it was on March 1st.
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RalphH

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If you read my posts, you would see that I was talking about the 'coastal ranges'. Anyways....it's not worth arguing with you. I stand by what I said that come March 31, I think the 'coastal range' snowpack will be in better shape then it was on March 1st.

You seem to think everything I write has to do with you. Why is that?
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" ...no one predicted Mr. Trump would behave quite so insanely as he has in fact behaved – as always, Mr. Trump exceeds all expectations of how much he would exceed expectations of how much worse he would perform than expected. "
Andrew Coyne, Globe and Mail Feb 13, 2025

SuperBobby

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https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/seasonal/canada-2025-spring-weather-forecast

Our Spring forecast is for a cooler than normal spring until at least May with normal precipitation. This is a very common pattern with a La Nina leaving us.
This sort of weather pattern generally means a DELAYED snow melt for the higher elevations on BC mountains....and quite often brings above normal spring snowfall for mid to high elevations.

At this point, there is no reason to panic as some love to fearmonger their man made climate change delusions.
Unless May and June go super early summer hot, no one needs to lose any sleep over 'what could happen'. That is still many weeks away.

Or maybe your buddy Mark Carney could use our carbon tax dollars to truck in snow from the Arctic to build our snowpack even more.
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RalphH

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Oh now comes the climate change Liberal/Progressive conspiracy tirade.

On the subject of a cool spring, the last 2 at least have been cool and wet. I garden so I have noticed it. Summers have been dry and hot though. We will see what the southern ocean currents bring.

Have a nice day. Cheers!
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" ...no one predicted Mr. Trump would behave quite so insanely as he has in fact behaved – as always, Mr. Trump exceeds all expectations of how much he would exceed expectations of how much worse he would perform than expected. "
Andrew Coyne, Globe and Mail Feb 13, 2025

roeman

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Snowpack, climate change, housing and food pricing.  Does not matter anymore..
Trump will be here soon and will fix everything.
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Are you fishin or catchin

RalphH

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" ...no one predicted Mr. Trump would behave quite so insanely as he has in fact behaved – as always, Mr. Trump exceeds all expectations of how much he would exceed expectations of how much worse he would perform than expected. "
Andrew Coyne, Globe and Mail Feb 13, 2025

SuperBobby

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Looks like the mid March snow report had some pretty good increases. they are forecasting a warm spell for the next few days so it should be interesting to see how it holds up until the end of the month.
They are still predicting a slow melt through until at least the end of April. Our winter total will still fall short of normal which is becoming more and more common lately.

Regardless, the sky is not falling, but the climate mongers have been well and alive since they predicted the next ice age back in the 70s. There is no better tool to control the lemmings than fear. Crazy how 100s of millions of people still haven't figured that out yet.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/air-land-water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/river-forecast-centre/snow-survey-water-supply-bulletin/snow-conditions-commentary
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