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[Chum Slayer]

How do guys you think the 2021 flood will affect pink salmon numbers in 2023?

[Darko]

How do guys you think the 2021 flood will affect pink salmon numbers in 2023?

only time will tell, but definitely expectations are low. Here's hoping we can get another opening at least in the tidal Fraser

[RalphH]

It's hard to know at this point. Within the next few months DFO should release a preliminary estimate of run size for the Fraser then there will be some idea though that forecast is notoriously inaccurate. The best indication will be test fishery numbers from about mid August on.

Not all the major spawning areas will have been as seriously affected as the Chilliwack. The Fraser upstream of the mouth of the Sumas to Hope, the Harrison, The Thompson and Seton Creek are the most important. The Harrison is buffered by the lake, the Fraser gets most of it's flow from the Thompson and upstream and I think the interior streams were mostly out of the plume of the storm. It's really a matter of how much gravel bed shifting there was during the high flow period. So cross your fingers and stay tuned.

[wildmanyeah]

Below-average returns are expected in 2023 relative to the historic average returns of 11.4 million. Total spawning escapement in 2021 was 7.8 million. While Fraser Pink Salmon do not have associated Wild Salmon Policy benchmarks, and have not been assessed by COSEWIC, there is an spawning escapement target of 6.0 million when returns are above 7.06 million.

[RalphH]

Below-average returns are expected in 2023 relative to the historic average returns of 11.4 million. Total spawning escapement in 2021 was 7.8 million. While Fraser Pink Salmon do not have associated Wild Salmon Policy benchmarks, and have not been assessed by COSEWIC, there is an spawning escapement target of 6.0 million when returns are above 7.06 million.

At some point in the early 90s I recall the target escapement was around 3 million which was considered sufficient to produce total returns 3 or 4 times or more. Escapements  from '59 through much of the 70s were less than 5 and often around 1 million:

https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/189621.pdf   see pg 6

[wildmanyeah]

Posted on FB:


Darrel McEachern
I attended the Fraser Panel pre season meetings in Portland this week as a gillnet representative. Very poor sockeye forecast for 2023 and will likely be worse in 2024. The p50 2023 sockeye forecast is 1.6 million and the p50 forecast for 2023 pinks is 6.1 million.  More 5 year old sockeye are expected in 2023 than usual. There will be no commercial fishing in Canada for FR Sockeye or Pink unless the returns are much greater than forecast.
The 2022 spawning ground assessments are nearly complete. The Early Summers showed up on the grounds at higher than the Mission hydroaccoustic numbers (less reported removals).  Unfortuately both the Summers and Lates had large unaccounted shortfalls between the Mission hydroaccoustic numbers and the spawing ground counts in 2022. (33% and 42% shortfalls respectively). The possible reasons include: that the Mission hydroaccoustic numbers were erroneously high, that the high water temperatures caused more enroute losses than expected or that there were more removals above Mission than reported....  or a combination of all three reasons.
Positive notes are that ocean conditions seem to be improving and the number of Interior Fraser River coho are increasing.
There are quite a few senior staff changes on the Fraser Panel.

[wildmanyeah]

At some point in the early 90s I recall the target escapement was around 3 million which was considered sufficient to produce total returns 3 or 4 times or more. Escapements  from '59 through much of the 70s were less than 5 and often around 1 million:

https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/189621.pdf   see pg 6

Ralph your about the only personal i know that acknowledges salmon fluctuations in the past. Just about everyone else seems to have this rosy picture of abundance everywhere.

many dont seem to recall the 80's and how bad some of the returns were (chinook),

many just remember the 90's when there was high ocean survival.

[coastangler]

Also keep in mind the Squamish watershed was almost not affected by the floods (I remember fishing a week after and water was high, but ok) and 2021 return in Squamish was fairly large. That combined with no retention in main stem and no fishing in the tribs should probably result in a decent return at least in that system. I remember not being able to fish the Cheak in early October because there was thousands of pinks EVERYWHERE and even if I was targeting Coho, I would snag or they would take my fly, so I ended up driving back home.

[wildmanyeah]

I was told the reason for the low estimate of picks 6.1 million, even tho the escapement was 8 million is the out migration smolt count in the fraser mainstem was the worst on record.