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[Steelhawk]

If Fraser run is better than expected,  DFO should open up the Fraser for pink retention,  at least in the tidal portion.  Is there any sign they will consider that or they won't open until sockeye run is over?

[fic]

hearing some big numbers being tossed around for fraser pink returns (10 million +), guess will have to wait and see

≥ 70% of the run size has been accounted for in catch + escapement. Good indication of run size; peak fo the run has been observed at
Mission, uncertainty relates to seaward abundancePink run size based on timing
Catch+Escapement To Date: 34,000
Based on timing of 13-Aug 50% Date 17,063,500
Based on timing of 14-Aug 50% Date 20,397,500
Based on timing of 15-Aug 50% Date 21,433,000
Based on timing of 16-Aug 50% Date 21,886,000
Based on timing of 17-Aug 50% Date 23,511,000
*Based on % seaward in 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021 if timing is later than 17-Aug
*Equal to double the reconstructed abundance if timing is earlier than 18-Aug
======================================

Hopefully these numbers hold up.  Very few pinks have migrated in river so far.  May be this year the Squamish Pinks are by-passing Furry Creek and swimming the opposite side, or late arriving.

[RalphH]

you are suggesting the test fisheries and sonar fence numbers so far indicate  a probable return of 20 million or more?

You have to remember that up until a week or so ago the % of Fraser pinks in test fishery results  was less than 20%.

[redside1]

If Fraser run is better than expected,  DFO should open up the Fraser for pink retention,  at least in the tidal portion.  Is there any sign they will consider that or they won't open until sockeye run is over?

due to outside pressures I doubt this will happen. Maybe but don't hold your breathe

[redside1]

Fishing at Furry Creek was still dismal yesterday. It was worse from 2 weeks ago. So is the run over?

starting to see a number of coloured pinks showing up in Social media pictures from the squamish so the run could be on the down slide now.

[fic]

you are suggesting the test fisheries and sonar fence numbers so far indicate  a probable return of 20 million or more?

You have to remember that up until a week or so ago the % of Fraser pinks in test fishery results  was less than 20%.

https://www.psc.org/download/677/2023/15212/2023-08-18-distribution.pdf

I am just quoting parts of this document. 

Area 20 on August 14th reached 51% Fraser Pinks.  Area 12 reached 24%.  They predicted 52% and 41% for August 17th Fraser Pinks in Area 20 and 12 respectively.

[coastangler]

Went to the Squamish this AM and finally pinks seem to have arrived in numbers. Compared to two weeks ago, today you could clearly see them fining, jumping and resting in the shallow water all over the place. Water clarity has gotten worse and it was very challenging for them to see the presentation. Spend 2.5 hours and managed to hook 3 - others were also hooking but everyone seemed to be having the same troubles with water clarity. They were all good size and looked fresh enough - sharing one pic below. Great to see numbers growing from week to week

[wildmanyeah]

you are suggesting the test fisheries and sonar fence numbers so far indicate  a probable return of 20 million or more?

You have to remember that up until a week or so ago the % of Fraser pinks in test fishery results  was less than 20%.

Psc has some modelling showing 17 million as a mean but there is a very high uncertainty

[Jelly_]

When do you all think we can expect to see pinks arriving in the vedder?

[fic]

When do you all think we can expect to see pinks arriving in the vedder?

They may already be there, but not in large numbers yet.  They only counted around 24000 Pinks swimming past Mission. 

[Kever]

Went to the Squamish this AM and finally pinks seem to have arrived in numbers. Compared to two weeks ago, today you could clearly see them fining, jumping and resting in the shallow water all over the place. Water clarity has gotten worse and it was very challenging for them to see the presentation. Spend 2.5 hours and managed to hook 3 - others were also hooking but everyone seemed to be having the same troubles with water clarity. They were all good size and looked fresh enough - sharing one pic below. Great to see numbers growing from week to week

Thanks for the update.  Maybe the mouth of the cheakamus would have better water clarity?

[psd1179]

Went to the Squamish this AM and finally pinks seem to have arrived in numbers. Compared to two weeks ago, today you could clearly see them fining, jumping and resting in the shallow water all over the place. Water clarity has gotten worse and it was very challenging for them to see the presentation. Spend 2.5 hours and managed to hook 3 - others were also hooking but everyone seemed to be having the same troubles with water clarity. They were all good size and looked fresh enough - sharing one pic below. Great to see numbers growing from week to week

Thanks you. This is what we need in this post. I don't care about fraser river opening. it will open when it opens

[coastangler]

Thanks for the update.  Maybe the mouth of the cheakamus would have better water clarity?

Probably, although and unlike two weeks ago where the Mamquam was cleaner than the main, today the Mamquam was all clay. I suspect Cheak will be cleaner but I don't think the mouth is accessible with the current water levels. I learned this lesson a few years ago crossing with main river at 3.2M and I really struggled - today is almost 4M so I wouldn't recommend it

[Kever]

Ah dang!  Well I guess I'll pass on fishing this weekend, wait until the cooler nights or when the main stem drops below 3m.   

[RalphH]

the weekly panel report isn't up yet so I my guess there has been some discussion what the estimate should be. 2013 was the only case of the last 11 cycles where the return came close to tripling the pre-season forecast (8.9 forecast vs actual of 26+ million). Overall many stocks are showing strong returns.