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[Wade]

A dumb question here - where do you guys go for historic salmon return data?

I’m trying to find a centralized database where historic returns for each species are listed but haven’t been able to find such a place. Heard this year’s poor chum size is partly because 2019 return was very small, so went to google the 2019 chum return, all I got is some old news from 2019 essentially just bits and pieces of estimates without a clear view on the exact official number…

[salmonrook]

DFO website
https://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pacific-smon-pacifique/science/research-recherche/index-eng.html

[RalphH]

fisheries notices from past years may provide some info for example here is a link to the Fraser River terminal chum forecast for 2019:

https://notices.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fns-sap/index-eng.cfm?pg=view_notice&DOC_ID=226523&ID=all

There must also be a yearly report. i have certainly seen these for past years. One problem is that there isn't much of an effort to actually count returns, spawners in stream or dead fish in many cases. I think that is done on the Harrison and Chilliwack for example and i have certainly seen people counting dead fish on both.

As for what the cause of the low return, well chums have been in generally low numbers for around 15 years or so and various runs are in trouble on the whole coast. They have a history of varying greatly over a span of time. Numbers in the 80s to around 2005 or so were generally very high and then dropped off rather dramatically and it was a coast wide phenomena when it happened. not all streams are equally affected by such trends. The Chilliwack seemed to do much better than others while on the Harrison they almost seemed to vanish. Some EC Vanisle streams also have fared better than many others.

[wildmanyeah]

here's one

https://frasersalmon.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/1.-Post-Season-Update.pdf



Chum In-Season Run Size Estimates

Year     In-season     Post-season  Escapement
2012    2,326,000    1,594,731     1,333,993
2013    1,489,000    1,425,763     1,114,947
2014    1,329,000    1,385,372     1,122,392
2015    1,567,000    1,249,936     923,352
2016    2,000,000    2,383,505     1,930,695
2017    1,320,000    908,874        626,661
2018    769,000       762,588        647,251
2019    518,000       324,524        291,379
2020    1,084,000    624,354        521,050
2021*  481,000       522,899        488,763


There is also some data here

https://www.psc.org/publications/technical-reports/technical-committee-reports/chum/

[SuperBobby]

2021*  481,000       522,899        488,763

Unfortunately, as much as we'd like to predict the future runs from these 'escapement' numbers, it isn't always possible.
I believe that 2025 will be a disaster for south coast wild salmon. Most rivers saw insane water levels for a very long extended period of time during mid late November.
It's very possible that eggs were ripped right off the bed and/or covered in new rock/sand base after spawn.
Any wild salmon run that spawned before mid November 2021 will probably be facing new lows in those cycles.

[wildmanyeah]

ocean survival can really trump anything that happens in freshwater. I'm not saying freshwater is not really important it is but who knows what next year will bring

100k smolts leaving the rivers with a 1% ocean survival = 1k returning
25k smolts leaving the river with a 4% ocean survival = 1k returning

obviously its devastation when you get poor ocean and poor freshwater survival.

just saying that it might not be that bad if we get good ocean survival like we did with pinks this year.

[Old Blue]

ocean survival can really trump anything that happens in freshwater. I'm not saying freshwater is not really important it is but who knows what next year will bring

100k smolts leaving the rivers with a 1% ocean survival = 1k returning
25k smolts leaving the river with a 4% ocean survival = 1k returning

obviously its devastation when you get poor ocean and poor freshwater survival.

just saying that it might not be that bad if we get good ocean survival like we did with pinks this year.

Bingo!!!  Great explanation, thanks for posting.

[SuperBobby]

just saying that it might not be that bad if we get good ocean survival like we did with pinks this year.

None of that matters if the spawning beds were blown apart....and there is evidence of that taking place in Nov 2021.

[coastangler]

None of that matters if the spawning beds were blown apart....and there is evidence of that taking place in Nov 2021.

The 2023 Pink Salmon run has already proven that argument wrong

[GoldHammeredCroc]

None of that matters if the spawning beds were blown apart....and there is evidence of that taking place in Nov 2021.

This is probably true for the systems below Hope.  I'm sure there is very little coming back to the Coquihalla as that system was completely thrashed by the rain on snow event.  Chums are above Hells gate so they will probably show some signs of suffering, especially on systems that aren't dam controlled (Stave) or can handle massive volumes of water (Harrison).  The rest probably had some impact.  It is amazing that any pinks came back to the Chilliwack.

The 2023 Pink Salmon run has already proven that argument wrong

The Thompson system had a very strong pink return so perhaps the numbers were bolstered by non-flood effected systems.  Squamish good?  What other lower mainland streams have/had a decent pink return?

[Dave]

It is amazing that any pinks came back to the Chilliwack.
The Thompson system had a very strong pink return so perhaps the numbers were bolstered by non-flood effected systems.  Squamish good?  What other lower mainland streams have/had a decent pink return?

Bang on. I think the off channel habitat and gravel augmentation in the upper Chilliwack is what saved this pink stock for this cycle. And I think you're right, when all stocks are accounted for, will show by far the greatest numbers above the Hope.

[firebird]

I'm sure there is very little coming back to the Coquihalla as that system was completely thrashed by the rain on snow event. 

Pink numbers were not too bad - they could be found throughout the lower river and in Suckers Creek. Chum numbers are currently pretty good in Suckers Cr - the river has been too high to observe fish in the mainstem.
The enhanced habitat in Suckers Cr is likely the saving grace for the lower river as it is the only off channel habitat and it is buffered from flooding by the lake upstream.

[clarki]

I have a hunch that the pinks that spawned in the Fraser mainstem below Hope in 2021 would have good escapement/returns in 2023.

Although the Fraser did get high as a result of the 2021 flood, IIRC it was the same, or even lower, height/discharge that is experienced in an average spring freshet. I don’t believe the Fraser experienced the same level of scouring/gravel movement that other smaller systems experienced.

Just a hunch that Fraser pinks would have fared fairly well.

[coastangler]

Squamish good?

In my humble opinion the Squamish 2023 pink return was excellent (despite a bit late), at least based on the 4-5 trips I did this year. Had somewhat fresh pinks biting my offerings well into October, which I found unusual. I don't think the Squamish return numbers are tracked like in the Fraser but would be curious to know if my impression is correct.

Also I don't suspect the 2021 floods had a massive impact on other salmon species in the Squamish, since that basin can handle a lot of water and water levels during those weeks were not higher than the freshet average, in fact I went out a few times during November 2021 and the river was quite fishable.

[VAGAbond]

As for what the cause of the low return, well chums have been in generally low numbers for around 15 years or so and various runs are in trouble on the whole coast. They have a history of varying greatly over a span of time. Numbers in the 80s to around 2005 or so were generally very high and then dropped off rather dramatically and it was a coast wide phenomena when it happened. not all streams are equally affected by such trends. The Chilliwack seemed to do much better than others while on the Harrison they almost seemed to vanish. Some EC Vanisle streams also have fared better than many others.

I recall reading some years back that the Chum returns for the middle years of the 20th century were perplexingly low except for four consecutive years of exceptional returns during the second world war when high seas fishermen were off the water due to wartime activity.  There was also a high return some years later when asian side fishermen were off the water for some reason.   This suggests that open ocean harvesting is a possible cause for low returns. I believe there are treaties covering ocean harvest and causing a significant loss of all the coastal Chum would take a significant fishing fleet to cover the vast area out there and that would be noticed, I hope.  So illegal ocean harvest is probably not the cause of low returns but the second word war
multiyear anomaly makes one wonder.